Before the Lunar New Year holiday, the stock market broke out quite strongly. Exciting cash flow pulled VN-Index over the important milestone of 1,100 points, equivalent to an increase of 10% since the beginning of the year. However, after a series of strong recovery days, many investors are also worried that the market will experience a correction after the Tet holiday.
In fact, history has shown that the market usually has a high probability of rallying right after the Lunar New Year holiday. Statistics for more than 22 years of operation, the probability of VN-Index increasing in the first 5 days of the new year is nearly 64% with an average increase of 1.13%.
Narrowing the range in the last 10 years, VN-Index had 8 increases and only 2 declines, in which, in 2021, it recorded an increase of 5.6%, in 2022, it continued to increase by 1.54%. If counting the first trading session after the Lunar New Year alone, the main index also had 14 gaining sessions compared to 8 decreasing sessions.
Commenting on the market trend after the Lunar New Year, Mr. Nguyen The Minh, Analysis Director of Yuanta Securities Vietnam assessed that the market will continue to recover and maintain positive developments in the first week of the year. Hat 2023.
According to experts, the market had a very positive transition in the last trading sessions before the Lunar New Year holiday. With the recent signals, it can be confirmed that the market has confirmed the short-term uptrend with the motivation from some bright spots of the business results season, the banking group’s own story or the pull from public investment.
However, the market is still likely to see a few shakes due to the apprehension from the previous strong recovery. Experts recommend that short-term investors can take advantage of that correction to increase the proportion of stocks above 50% of the portfolio because the general trend of the market is still bullish.
Suggesting potential industry groups that can drop money after the Tet holiday, Mr. Nguyen The Minh said that investors should focus on banking stocks, especially banking stocks with their own stories.
The first is the story of amending Decree 01, increasing the foreign ownership ratio to 49% for banks that handle weak banks. Specifically, the State Bank of Vietnam is recently considering loosening room for banks that have participated in restructuring weak banks (such as HDBank, MB and VPBank).
Besides, the expert also emphasized that investors should pay attention to the story of increasing equity for banks, especially national banks.
Discussing attractive investment topics in 2023, Mr. Nguyen Anh Khoa – Head of Agriseco Securities Analysis Department also gave 4 suggestions.
With the theme of China opening up the economy, experts expect this event will have a positive impact on a number of industry groups such as export groups including seafood, aviation – tourism, steel, etc.
Disbursement of public investment. Entering 2023, public investment disbursement is expected to become a new pillar for economic growth in the coming period. The public investment brings leadership and spillover across many industry groups, of which direct beneficiaries can be mentioned are infrastructure construction and building materials (stone, cement, steel).
Topics of investment to hedge against inflation. Inflation is currently the focus of the world economy and global investors due to concerns about major impacts on the operating policies of each country. In such a context, investors can increase their proportion in industries that are benefited or less affected by inflation, such as Groups benefiting from the rise in commodity prices; Essential consumer groups; Defensive group (electricity, water, pharmaceuticals); Group of enterprises with high and regular dividend payout ratio.
The topic of investing in leading stocks with cheap valuation, aiming for long-term investment goals. The general market’s sharp decline in recent times has opened up many opportunities to accumulate leading stocks with good fundamentals and deep discounts, making valuations more attractive.
The leading stocks in the industry are usually those that have completed the value chain, have a healthy financial foundation, and have sustainable growth in business results. These are businesses that have a great competitive advantage and can survive in the market during the most difficult times. Investment opportunities will open up with leading enterprises in key fields such as retail, technology, energy, etc.
Source: CafeF
Source: Vietnam Insider