Despite market pressure led by property giants VHM and VRE, analysts remain bullish on leading banks and energy service stocks, signaling potential rebound zones between 1,635 and 1,675 points.
HANOI — October 28, 2025 (Vietnam Insider) — Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index slipped sharply below its 50-day moving average (MA50) of 1,675 points on Monday, dragged down by heavy sell-offs in blue-chip real estate stocks Vinhomes (VHM) and Vincom Retail (VRE).
Market watchers expect the index to fluctuate between 1,635–1,675 points today as investors test the new short-term support level.
While the correction reflects investor caution amid mixed third-quarter earnings, analysts see it as a technical pullback within an otherwise resilient market, with selective opportunities in banking and oil & gas stocks.
Fundamental Analysis: Key Stocks in Focus
BIDV (BID) — BUY recommendation maintained; target price: VND 44,800
Analysts continue to favor Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV) for its consistent growth outlook:
2025 profit after tax projected to grow 5% YoY, followed by a 16% CAGR (2026–2029).
Supported by stable credit expansion, improving NIMs, and solid asset quality.
Current P/B of 1.65x remains below its 5-year average of 2.13x, indicating undervalued levels.
The planned private placement of 138 million shares has been shifted to mid-2026, with the issue price revised upward from VND 40,000 to VND 45,000 per share — reflecting stronger market confidence.
PTSC (PVS) — BUY rating; target price raised 8% to VND 45,000
Oil and gas engineering firm PetroVietnam Technical Services (PVS) remains one of the sector’s top picks:
2025 core profit expected to jump 39% YoY, driven by the M&C segment (mechanical & construction), with revenue up 70% and gross margin improving to 1.8%.
2026 forecast: profit up 19% YoY as Block B gas project enters peak construction phase.
EPS CAGR of 17% (2026–2028), supported by a $5.3 billion project backlog and steady FSO/FPSO joint-venture earnings of VND 831 billion per year.
Attractive P/E forecast of 12.5x for 2026, well below the 5-year average of 18x.
Sector Updates
BMI (Bao Minh Insurance)
9M 2025 revenue: VND 5.1 trillion (-1% YoY), profit before tax (PBT): VND 302 billion (+38% YoY).
Q3 PBT rose 28% QoQ and 299% YoY, aided by improved claims ratios and higher investment income.
Overall profit slightly below forecasts but signals a turnaround in profitability after weak early-year performance.
MBB (MB Bank)
9M 2025 total operating income: VND 48.2 trillion (+24% YoY), PBT: VND 23.1 trillion (+12% YoY).
Credit growth outpaced the sector at 18.5% vs. system average 13.4%.
CASA ratio at 37%, second only to Techcombank.
NIM held steady at 4.12%, while NPL ratio rose slightly to 1.87% — within manageable range.
Earnings came in marginally below expectations, but underlying fundamentals remain strong.
MSN (Masan Group)
9M 2025 profit after tax surged 101% YoY, Q3 profit up 72% YoY.
Growth driven by WinCommerce (WCM) and Masan High-Tech Materials (MHT), offsetting weaker results from Masan Consumer Holdings (MCH).
WCM: revenue up 23% YoY, profit up 9x to VND 175 billion; net margin at 1.7%.
MML: revenue up 23% YoY, profit up 5x, with operating margin reaching 6%.
MHT: revenue up 33% YoY, returning to profitability.
Market Outlook
The recent dip in the VN-Index may signal a short-term consolidation rather than a trend reversal. Institutional investors are likely to monitor whether the MA50 line at 1,675 holds as a pivot point for the next rebound.
“Despite short-term volatility, Vietnam’s fundamentals remain strong — low inflation, stable monetary policy, and robust domestic consumption are all tailwinds,” noted Sophie Dao, Senior Partner at GBS – Global Business Services LLC, an investment consulting firm in Ho Chi Minh City. She added, “The pullback is offering selective opportunities in quality blue chips, especially banks and energy service firms that benefit from infrastructure and industrial expansion.”
While profit-taking and sector rotation continue to pressure the VN-Index, analysts agree that BID and PVS stand out as value plays in the medium term. With improving corporate earnings and capital inflows returning to emerging markets, Vietnam’s equity market remains one of the region’s most compelling growth stories.
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Source: Vietnam Insider