Vietnam’s stock market is experiencing a resurgence, with the VN-Index surpassing 1,400 points for the first time in over three years.
On July 8, the benchmark index advanced by more than 13 points, buoyed by renewed investor confidence and strong trading liquidity, which exceeded VND 28 trillion (approximately USD 1.1 billion). The rally is viewed as part of a broader market recovery following a brief correction in April.
According to Mr. Trần Hoàng Sơn, Chief Market Strategist at VPBank Securities (VPBankS), the VN-Index is on track to reach a new range of 1,500–1,550 points in the second half of the year. However, he cautioned that the market may first experience a technical correction when it approaches resistance levels between 1,430 and 1,450 points.
Mr. Sơn noted that Vietnam’s equity market is nearing a critical period of assessment for an upgrade to emerging market status—an ambition long pursued by policymakers and investors alike. The country’s performance, he argued, is beginning to mirror that of more developed emerging markets, driven by improving liquidity, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic indicators.
Investor confidence has rebounded rapidly, as evidenced by the sharp recovery in trading volumes and a milestone achievement: over 10 million trading accounts have now been registered in Vietnam. Corporate earnings are also expected to align with favorable monetary and fiscal policies, with profit growth projected at 15–16% this year. Key sectors such as banking, securities, real estate, and steel are forecasted to continue their recovery momentum.
Mr. Sơn further emphasized the potential influx of foreign capital through upcoming initial public offerings (IPOs). Vietnam may see as much as USD 47.5 billion in IPO deals across financial services, consumer goods, and information technology by the end of this year and early next. Historical precedents such as Vinamilk’s divestment in 2017–2018 support the view that IPO activity can significantly stimulate market performance.
Speaking at the same event, Dr. Nguyễn Xuân Thành, Senior Lecturer at Fulbright University Vietnam’s School of Public Policy and Management, pointed out that the Vietnamese market has responded positively to recent macroeconomic indicators. In his view, much of the optimism also stems from successful trade negotiations, which have helped ease tariff-related concerns.
He highlighted two main drivers of macroeconomic strength in the first half of 2025. First, despite elevated global tariffs, Vietnam’s export sector recorded robust growth, underpinned by manufacturing resilience. Second, public investment has accelerated and is expected to maintain strong momentum over the next three to four years.
Market watchers are closely following Vietnam’s push for an upgrade from frontier to emerging market status, a move that could attract an estimated USD 3–7 billion in both passive and active capital flows. While some expect the upgrade to be announced as early as September, others anticipate a decision by March next year, citing technical issues related to settlement processes and the new KRX trading system that still need refinement.
Should the upgrade materialize and capital be deployed swiftly, it would likely deliver a powerful boost to Vietnam’s capital markets and position the country more prominently on the global investment map.
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Source: Vietnam Insider