Vietnam Stock Market Trading Ideas – September 26, 2025

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HANOI – Vietnam’s equity market opened Friday with cautious optimism as the VN-Index continued to consolidate above the 20-day moving average, supported by blue-chip gains.

Market Outlook

• VN-Index: The benchmark closed higher on Thursday, edging above the MA20 range of 1,660–1,665 points, led by VIC. Analysts expect the index to trade within a narrow band of 1,660–1,680 points today.

Stock Highlights

POW (PetroVietnam Power Corporation)

• Capital Increase Plan: Approved a two-part capital raise, including a 19% stock dividend/bonus issue and a 12% rights offering at VND 10,000/share. Execution is scheduled for late 2025 or Q1 2026.
• Funding Use: The VND 7.26 trillion proceeds will finance Nhon Trach 3 & 4 gas power plants (1,624MW, total capex VND 32.4 trillion). Both plants completed trial runs at full capacity and aim for commercial operations by December 2025, with revenue contributions expected from early 2026.
• Cà Mau Power Plants: With gas supply from PM3-CAA field projected to deplete by 2027, POW is exploring alternative fuel sources to ensure supply continuity.
• Vung Ang 1 PPA Negotiations: Talks remain unresolved; investors expect the fixed capacity payment to increase to 3.8% from 2026, based on an updated investment estimate of VND 27.5 trillion.
• FX Losses: Current accounting rules force recognition of FX losses despite EVN being the responsible party. POW plans to propose regulatory adjustments.

SSI Securities Corporation

• Rights Issue: Approved a 5:1 rights offering (20%) at VND 15,000/share for 2025–2026.
• Market Upgrade: Management expects FTSE Russell to upgrade Vietnam to Emerging Market status in October 2025, assigning >90% probability.
• Brokerage Share: Increased to 12% in Q3 2025 from 10.3% in Q2.
• Margin Lending: Reached VND 42 trillion in Q3 (+27% QoQ), equivalent to 147% of Q2 equity.
• Profit Guidance: 9M 2025 pre-tax profit estimated at VND 4 trillion (+33.8% YoY), fulfilling 94% of its annual plan. SSI expects to exceed 2025 targets by 15–20% if market conditions remain favorable.
• Digital Asset Plans: Exploring participation in Vietnam’s upcoming digital asset market, with potential roles as a trading platform or ETF issuer. No final decision yet.

PLX (Petrolimex – Vietnam National Petroleum Group)

• Sales Volume: Preliminary September sales rose 10.3% YoY, bringing 9M 2025 growth to +8.8% YoY.
• Q3 Estimate: Domestic sales of 2.8 million tons (+10% YoY; -6% QoQ).
• 9M Total: 8.5 million tons, reaching 75% of full-year forecast.

Derivatives Market Strategy

• Contract 41l1FA000: Despite sideways trading on Sept 25, the contract maintained bullish momentum above the MA200 (M15).
• Outlook: Expected to retest 1,860 points. Long positions can be opened with stop-loss below 1,837 points.
  • Entry (Long): 1,845 points
  • Target: 1,860 points
  • Stop-loss: 1,837 points

Related

Source: Vietnam Insider