Vietnam Among Top 5 Countries Likely to Strike a Trade Deal with Trump First

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In the wake of renewed tariff tensions, investment bank Jefferies Group has identified five countries most likely to ink a trade deal with the U.S. under a potential second Trump administration — and Vietnam is on that shortlist.

According to Aniket Shah, Jefferies’ Head of Sustainability, Transformation, and Washington Strategy, the UK, Japan, Vietnam, India, and Cambodia are best positioned to negotiate early trade agreements with President Donald Trump, should he return to the White House.

These predictions come as U.S. stock markets continue to react to Trump’s “reciprocal tariff” agenda. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 slipped 1.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones dropped more than 2% and 0.8%, respectively.

Trump has signaled willingness to renegotiate tariffs, and Jefferies believes several U.S.-linked companies could stand to gain significantly if trade deals materialize. The five countries were selected based on multiple criteria, including:

• Their political ties to Trump
• The volume of U.S. imports they receive
• U.S. exports’ contribution to their GDP
• Current tariff disparities
• Overall economic resilience

The newly announced tariffs are steep: 10% on the UK, 24% on Japan, 46% on Vietnam, 26% on India, and 49% on Cambodia.

Winners to Watch: Nike, Boeing, Amazon

Among companies likely to benefit from potential deals, Nike stands out. With close manufacturing ties to Vietnam and Cambodia, the sneaker and apparel giant has been hit hard by Trump’s tariff rhetoric. Nike shares have dropped nearly 18% in the past week. Yet, there’s optimism ahead — the company is projected to produce about 50% of its footwear and 28% of its apparel in Vietnam by 2024, and last year, 15% of its apparel was made in Cambodia.

Analyst Randal Konik maintains a bullish outlook on Nike, issuing a “buy” rating with a $115 price target — implying a potential 116% upside from its April 8 closing price. Of the 40 analysts tracking Nike, half rate it a strong buy or buy, according to LSEG.

Boeing could also see upside, especially from deals with the UK, Japan, and India — key markets for its international aircraft orders. Over two-thirds of Boeing’s deliveries in the past decade have gone to customers outside the U.S.

Tech titan Amazon is another potential beneficiary, particularly from trade deals with the UK and Japan, where it maintains strong market footprints.

Vietnam’s Moment?

Vietnam’s inclusion in this high-stakes list is especially noteworthy. As one of the fastest-growing manufacturing hubs in Asia and a critical link in global supply chains, Vietnam could be poised for even deeper economic integration with the U.S. if a deal is reached.

With geopolitical shifts accelerating and global markets watching closely, the road to new trade alignments may be shorter than expected — and Vietnam is well in the race.

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Source: Vietnam Insider