VanEck and Xtrackers could buy millions of Vietnamese shares as FTSE’s emerging-market upgrade approaches.

Vietnamese stocks are heading into a potentially volatile September as two major foreign ETFs with nearly $1 billion in combined assets prepare to rebalance their portfolios just days before Vietnam officially enters FTSE Russell’s Secondary Emerging Market category. Analysts expect significant buying in banks and industrial stocks including SSB, SHB, HPG and MSB, while VIC and several brokerage shares could face sizable selling pressure—creating one of the most closely watched index-trading windows of 2026.

Xtrackers Vietnam ETF and VanEck Vietnam ETF are scheduled to announce their new portfolio compositions on September 4 and September 12, respectively, according to estimates cited by MB Securities (MBS). Portfolio rebalancing is expected to take place between September 14 and September 18.

The timing is particularly important because Vietnam’s FTSE emerging-market transition takes effect on September 21. That means investors could see two related but distinct sources of index-driven trading within a matter of days: the regular September ETF review followed by the first phase of Vietnam’s FTSE reclassification.

SSB, SHB, HPG and MSB Could See Heavy Buying

Based on market data through July 31, MBS expects Xtrackers Vietnam ETF to add three stocks that satisfy its requirements for market capitalization, liquidity and free float: Masan Consumer (MCH), TCX and VCK.

No existing constituent is expected to be removed from the Xtrackers portfolio.

For VanEck Vietnam ETF, MBS forecasts a more meaningful reshuffle. Sugar producer SBT and industrial-park developer SIP could be removed because their three-month average trading values no longer satisfy the fund’s liquidity criteria.

SSB and infrastructure company CII are expected to replace them.

The resulting portfolio adjustments could create substantial trading volumes in individual Vietnamese stocks.

MBS estimates that SSB could see purchases of more than 14 million shares, equivalent to roughly 2.8 days of normal trading volume.

SHB could attract purchases exceeding 16 million shares, while steelmaker HPG may see buying of more than 11.5 million shares. MSB is another notable potential beneficiary, with approximately 11.2 million shares expected to be purchased.

For investors, these estimates matter because passive funds do not buy stocks based on whether they consider them cheap or expensive. They must adjust their portfolios to replicate the underlying benchmark.

That can create temporary supply-demand imbalances around rebalancing dates.

VIC Could Face More Than 16 Million Shares of ETF Selling

The largest expected selling pressure is concentrated in Vingroup’s VIC.

MBS estimates that the ETFs could sell more than 16 million VIC shares because the stock’s current weighting in Xtrackers Vietnam ETF has exceeded the fund’s 15% concentration threshold.

Brokerage stocks could also experience substantial selling.

SSI and VIX are each expected to see close to 10 million shares sold, while approximately 5.4 million SBT shares and 5 million VCI shares could be unloaded.

The VIC adjustment is particularly interesting because it illustrates an important feature of index investing: strong share-price performance can eventually become a mechanical source of selling.

If a stock rises enough to exceed an ETF’s maximum allowable weighting, the fund may be forced to reduce its position even if the underlying company remains eligible for inclusion.

That makes September’s expected VIC selling fundamentally different from discretionary foreign investors deciding that the stock’s outlook has deteriorated.

ETF Trading Could Amplify Short-Term Volatility

For active investors, the absolute number of shares being bought or sold tells only part of the story.

The more important metric is how the expected ETF order compares with a stock’s normal daily liquidity.

SSB’s projected purchase of more than 14 million shares, for example, represents approximately 2.8 days of average trading volume, according to MBS. That creates greater potential for a price impact than an equally large order in a stock that routinely trades tens of millions of shares each session.

The same logic applies to selling.

Large ETF orders executed within a narrow rebalancing window can temporarily distort normal supply and demand, particularly during the closing auction of the final trading session before an index change becomes effective.

Experienced investors therefore tend to distinguish between an ETF flow and a fundamental signal.

A stock being purchased by an ETF has not necessarily become more attractive fundamentally. Likewise, a stock facing index-related selling has not necessarily become less valuable.

Once mechanical orders are completed, prices often return to being driven primarily by earnings, valuations and broader market conditions.

Foreign ETFs Have Still Been Pulling Money From Vietnam

The September buying forecasts also need to be viewed against a less bullish backdrop: ETF capital has continued to leave Vietnam in 2026.

During the first two weeks of August alone, ETFs investing in Vietnamese equities recorded net withdrawals of more than VND728 billion.

Kindex VN30 accounted for the majority, with approximately VND754 billion in net outflows. Fubon FTSE Vietnam and E1VFVN30 also recorded withdrawals of VND15.6 billion and VND7.8 billion, respectively.

Some funds bucked the trend. FUEVFVND attracted approximately VND31.2 billion, while FUESSV50 recorded net inflows of VND59.8 billion.

Year to date, however, the picture remains negative.

Vietnam-focused ETFs have experienced combined net withdrawals exceeding VND5.4 trillion. Fubon FTSE Vietnam ETF alone has recorded more than VND3.1 trillion in outflows, while VFMVN Diamond ETF has lost nearly VND850 billion.

VanEck Vietnam and Xtrackers Vietnam together recorded approximately VND1.6 trillion in net withdrawals between the beginning of the year and mid-August.

There is one encouraging signal: the pace of withdrawals reportedly slowed during July and August, while June recorded net inflows.

If that stabilization continues, September’s index events could arrive just as international investor sentiment toward Vietnam begins improving.

September Could Become a Major Test for Vietnam’s Market Upgrade

The ETF rebalance is especially noteworthy because it comes immediately before Vietnam’s long-awaited FTSE Russell upgrade.

Vietnam is scheduled to formally become a Secondary Emerging Market on September 21, potentially opening the market to a much broader universe of institutional and passive investors.

Separate estimates from Yuanta Securities suggest that 27 Vietnamese stocks could eventually attract around $1.5 billion in FTSE-related passive purchases as the country’s weighting is introduced in stages through September 2027.

Only around $150 million is expected during the first phase in September 2026, meaning investors should not expect the upgrade alone to transform the entire market overnight.

But the combination of the VanEck and Xtrackers rebalance from September 14-18 and the FTSE transition immediately afterward could make the second half of September unusually active for foreign institutional trading.

That could be particularly important for banks, securities companies and large-cap industrial stocks already experiencing high domestic investor interest.

The key distinction for investors is between short-term mechanical demand and long-term foreign capital allocation.

September’s ETF reshuffle could create trading opportunities around SSB, SHB, HPG, MSB and other affected stocks, while VIC, SSI, VIX and VCI could experience temporary technical pressure. But those flows will eventually pass.

The bigger question is what happens afterward.

If Vietnam’s FTSE upgrade coincides with the recent slowdown in ETF withdrawals and eventually reverses foreign flows back into positive territory, September 2026 could be remembered as more than an unusually busy index-rebalancing month. It could mark the point when global passive capital began treating Vietnam less like a frontier trade—and more like a mainstream emerging market.

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Source: Vietnam Insider