At around 11 p.m. Vietnam time on July 2, CNBC reported that the S&P 500 index rose after President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. had reached a trade agreement with Vietnam.

The S&P 500 gained 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 48 points, or 0.1%.

“The S&P 500 advanced after President Trump posted about the U.S.-Vietnam agreement on his social media platform, Truth Social, although he provided no further details. Shares of Nike—which manufactures about half of its footwear in Vietnam and China—jumped 3% following the announcement,” CNBC noted.

Earlier that day, U.S. markets had been under pressure after the latest report from payroll processor ADP showed that the U.S. private sector lost 33,000 jobs last month. This was the first monthly decline in ADP’s jobs report since March 2023. Economists had expected an increase of about 100,000 jobs.

According to Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, at around 8 p.m. on July 2, General Secretary Tô Lâm held a phone call with President Trump to discuss U.S.-Vietnam relations and ongoing negotiations over retaliatory tariffs between the two countries.

Both leaders welcomed the conclusion of a Joint U.S.-Vietnam Statement outlining the framework for a reciprocal, fair, and balanced trade agreement. President Trump confirmed that the U.S. would significantly reduce retaliatory tariffs on many Vietnamese exports.

On Truth Social the same day, Trump posted: “I just reached a trade agreement with Vietnam. Details to follow!”

Back in April, President Trump had announced a series of new tariffs targeting multiple trading partners—Vietnam faced a proposed rate of 46%—but enforcement had been postponed for 90 days to allow time for negotiations.

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Source: Vietnam Insider

In a stunning reversal, Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index just recorded its biggest single-day gain in history, with all VN30 stocks hitting their daily upper limit — effectively showing no sellers on the board. More than 1,100 stocks posted gains, and over 700 hit their ceiling price. It’s a complete turnaround from just one day earlier, when the index plunged for a fourth straight session to a 15-month low.

Until yesterday, the market was weighed down by margin calls and forced liquidations, with panic selling hitting even blue-chip stocks. Investor sentiment was in free fall, haunted by urgent questions like:

“Should I cut losses or hold?”
“Is it worth averaging down?”
“Where can I find cash to top up margin accounts?”

And then, overnight, everything changed.

The market rebounded as if the crash had never happened. Buy orders at ceiling prices flooded in, but barely any matched. Liquidity all but vanished after the ATO (At the Open) session. So what triggered such a dramatic shift?

The Psychology Behind the Volatility

There’s no single explanation for the wild swings in Vietnam’s stock market — but one undeniable factor is investor psychology. With individual investors accounting for around 90% of daily trading volume, emotions and sentiment play a massive role in market movements.

Much of this sentiment is driven by news cycles, often unverified or speculative. Retail investors frequently react to headlines — sometimes rumors — searching for meaning behind every move. Anything can be interpreted as a reason for a stock or the market to go up or down.

And then there’s the powerful force of FOMO — the fear of missing out. It leads to erratic behavior: selling off in panic one day, buying back in desperation the next. Many investors lack the discipline and risk management skills to navigate such volatility.

Even seasoned professionals weren’t spared in this latest market drop. The swiftness and depth of the correction caught many off guard, reinforcing the harsh reality that short-term trading is high-stakes and unforgiving. As some industry veterans put it, 95% of retail investors end up losing money.

Real Estate Stocks Surge, Stock Market Recovers
(Image: Mạnh Quân)

Market Forecasting: A Fool’s Game?

Attempting to predict short-term movements in the stock market is notoriously difficult. Dominic Scriven, Chairman of Dragon Capital — Vietnam’s largest fund manager — once said, “Even after 30 years in the market, I still can’t tell whether it’ll go up or down tomorrow.”

While short-term trading adds liquidity to the market, experts advise retail investors to build balanced portfolios that combine short-term opportunities with long-term investments. A reasonable margin ratio is also essential to avoid pressure during corrections and preserve the potential for future gains.

What’s Driving the Rebound?

One factor behind the recent recovery could be the temporary suspension of reciprocal tariffs by Donald Trump, offering a dose of relief to the market. But this is far from the end of the story — trade negotiations are ongoing, and the final outcome remains uncertain.

While the strong rebound has helped ease investor anxiety, caution is still warranted. The global economic outlook remains volatile, and external shocks could continue to affect Vietnam’s market.

The Long-Term Outlook Remains Bright

Despite short-term turbulence, Vietnam’s stock market maintains solid long-term fundamentals. With a stable macroeconomic environment, strong corporate earnings growth, attractive valuations, and growing momentum toward an upgrade to emerging market status, the long-term story is intact.

For investors willing to stay grounded, Vietnam’s market continues to offer exciting opportunities — just not without the usual thrills and spills.

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Source: Vietnam Insider

In the wake of renewed tariff tensions, investment bank Jefferies Group has identified five countries most likely to ink a trade deal with the U.S. under a potential second Trump administration — and Vietnam is on that shortlist.

According to Aniket Shah, Jefferies’ Head of Sustainability, Transformation, and Washington Strategy, the UK, Japan, Vietnam, India, and Cambodia are best positioned to negotiate early trade agreements with President Donald Trump, should he return to the White House.

These predictions come as U.S. stock markets continue to react to Trump’s “reciprocal tariff” agenda. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 slipped 1.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones dropped more than 2% and 0.8%, respectively.

Trump has signaled willingness to renegotiate tariffs, and Jefferies believes several U.S.-linked companies could stand to gain significantly if trade deals materialize. The five countries were selected based on multiple criteria, including:

• Their political ties to Trump
• The volume of U.S. imports they receive
• U.S. exports’ contribution to their GDP
• Current tariff disparities
• Overall economic resilience

The newly announced tariffs are steep: 10% on the UK, 24% on Japan, 46% on Vietnam, 26% on India, and 49% on Cambodia.

Winners to Watch: Nike, Boeing, Amazon

Among companies likely to benefit from potential deals, Nike stands out. With close manufacturing ties to Vietnam and Cambodia, the sneaker and apparel giant has been hit hard by Trump’s tariff rhetoric. Nike shares have dropped nearly 18% in the past week. Yet, there’s optimism ahead — the company is projected to produce about 50% of its footwear and 28% of its apparel in Vietnam by 2024, and last year, 15% of its apparel was made in Cambodia.

Analyst Randal Konik maintains a bullish outlook on Nike, issuing a “buy” rating with a $115 price target — implying a potential 116% upside from its April 8 closing price. Of the 40 analysts tracking Nike, half rate it a strong buy or buy, according to LSEG.

Boeing could also see upside, especially from deals with the UK, Japan, and India — key markets for its international aircraft orders. Over two-thirds of Boeing’s deliveries in the past decade have gone to customers outside the U.S.

Tech titan Amazon is another potential beneficiary, particularly from trade deals with the UK and Japan, where it maintains strong market footprints.

Vietnam’s Moment?

Vietnam’s inclusion in this high-stakes list is especially noteworthy. As one of the fastest-growing manufacturing hubs in Asia and a critical link in global supply chains, Vietnam could be poised for even deeper economic integration with the U.S. if a deal is reached.

With geopolitical shifts accelerating and global markets watching closely, the road to new trade alignments may be shorter than expected — and Vietnam is well in the race.

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Source: Vietnam Insider