U.S. tariffs, volatile Fed policy, and global market uncertainty complicate Vietnam’s push for double-digit growth in 2026.

Vietnam’s ambition to accelerate economic growth to more than 10% next year is facing mounting external pressure, as global monetary tightening and geopolitical trade risks make policy calibration increasingly difficult, senior officials from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) warned this week. The comments underscore the growing challenge for export-driven Southeast Asian economies navigating a fragile global recovery.

Speaking at a quarterly press conference in Hanoi on December 29, Pham Chi Quang, head of the SBV’s Monetary Policy Department, said unpredictable developments in global markets—particularly U.S. tariff policy and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest-rate trajectory—are complicating Vietnam’s macroeconomic management. These external shocks, he noted, are already affecting capital flows, the foreign-exchange market, and exchange-rate stability.

Vietnam’s government has reaffirmed confidence that the economy will surpass 8% growth in 2025, one of the strongest performances in Asia, and has set an ambitious 10%+ target for 2026 as part of its long-term development strategy. However, the central bank’s remarks signal that sustaining such momentum will require increasingly delicate policy coordination.

SBV officials emphasized that monetary policy next year will be managed “flexibly,” with closer alignment to fiscal policy to balance growth support against inflation control and financial stability. For Vietnam, this balancing act is critical: the economy remains heavily dependent on bank credit to fuel investment, consumption, and industrial expansion.

Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha revealed that as of December 24, credit growth had surged 19.41% year-on-year, highlighting the central role of lending in driving economic output. He said strong credit expansion has been a key contributor to Vietnam’s rapid growth this year and will remain essential if the country is to reach double-digit expansion in 2026.

For global investors, the message is mixed. Vietnam continues to stand out as one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies and a major beneficiary of supply-chain diversification. Yet its growth outlook is increasingly exposed to forces beyond its control—from U.S. interest rates and tariffs to shifting global capital flows.

The bigger question now is whether Vietnam can fine-tune monetary policy tightly enough to shield its economy from global volatility—while still pushing growth into the rare territory of double digits in an uncertain world economy.

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Source: Vietnam Insider

The State Bank of Vietnam has issued Circular No. 03/2023/TT-NHNN, which suspends the implementation of Clause 11 Article 4 of Circular No. 16/2021/TT-NHNN dated November 10, 2021, that regulates credit institutions and foreign bank branches buying and selling corporate bonds.

During the suspension of the implementation of Clause 11 Article 4 of Circular No. 16, credit institutions and foreign bank branches are allowed to repurchase unlisted corporate bonds that have not been listed on the stock market or registered for trading on the UpCom trading system.

These unlisted corporate bonds must have been previously sold by credit institutions, and/or issued in the same lot/same issuance of unlisted corporate bonds that a credit institution has sold, as long as they meet the provisions of Article 4, Circular No. 16/2021/TT-NHNN.

The buyer of these corporate bonds from a credit institution must pay the entire amount of the purchase at the time the credit institution signs a contract to sell the corporate bonds. Bond issuers must have the highest credit rating according to the credit institution’s internal credit rating regulations at the latest time before the credit institution buys the corporate bonds.

The issuance of Circular No. 03/2023/TT-NHNN aims to increase liquidity, remove difficulties, and promote the development of the corporate bond market in the current challenging situation, following the Government’s policy and the Prime Minister’s direction.

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A former director of the State Bank of Vietnam has been indicted along with 31 others in two corruption cases related to Van Thinh Phat Group, according to Lieutenant General Nguyen Van Thanh, deputy director of the Ministry of Public Security’s General Department of Criminal Investigation for Corruption and Economic Crimes.

The former director, Do Thi Nhan, was the head of an inspection team and allegedly gave a false report to the State Bank’s leadership about her team’s findings, which led to a delayed inspection of Saigon Commercial Bank. This is considered a serious violation.

According to local media, Nhan held the position of Director of the Inspectorate for Supervising Bank II until May 2020, after which she was transferred to a leadership position at a large bank. In addition to Nhan, four other members of the inspection team were indicted for abuse of power while performing their duties.

At the same press conference, Major General To An Xo, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Public Security, announced the results of an investigation into corruption at vehicle inspection centers. According to Xo, the Criminal Investigation Department and police in 32 localities have prosecuted 64 cases involving 506 defendants on seven charges related to fraudulent vehicle inspections.

From 2018 to 2022, hundreds of suspects colluded with 73 design and renovation companies with headquarters in 18 provinces and cities to inspect nearly 40,000 vehicles. Many vehicles were not qualified but were still issued inspection certificates, posing a traffic hazard and endangering society.

The Ministry of Public Security believes that the state management of vehicle inspections has been lax, resulting in an imbalance between the number of inspection centers and the number of vehicles on the road. Many vehicle inspection centers have opened for the sake of profit, competing by offering lower prices and accepting bribes to expedite the process. In addition, the Vietnam Register of Motor Vehicles has both the duty to inspect and supervise inspections, which makes it easier for corruption to occur, local media reported.

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Deposit interest rates in the market have simultaneously decreased by a sharp 1-2% a year compared to the peak period (around November 2022). Businesses expect that this move will reduce lending interest rates in the near future to help support production and business.

Recent statistics from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) showed that the average deposit interest rate in Vietnam dong (VND) of domestic commercial banks at the end of December 2022 was at 0.2-0.6%/year for demand deposits and terms of less than 1 month; 5.3-5.8%/year for deposits with terms from 1 to 6 months; 6.2-7.6%/year for terms from 6 months to 12 months; and terms ranging from 12 months to 24 months were 6.0-7.4%/year. It can be seen that deposit interest rates have decreased compared to October and November 2022.

The report from Bao Viet Securities (BVSC) also showed that deposit interest rates were almost flat in January 2023 and showed signs of cooling down from the end of the month. Analysts at SSI Securities Company said that deposit interest rates for terms of more than 6 months have tended to decrease at some banks, with a decrease of around 0.5%. Currently, the deposit interest rates of popular banks are at 8-9.5% with ordinary deposits.

Similarly, the savings deposit interest rate applied from February 14 for individual customers at Sacombank is no longer anchored at the interest rate of 9%/year as last month. Currently, the deposit interest rate at Sacombank counters is 5.5-6%/year with a term of 1-5 months; 8-8.3%/year with a term of 6-11 months, and 8.4-8.65%/year with a term of 12-36 months. MSB also reduced deposit interest rates by 0.2-0.4%/year in some terms.

With the online channel, the interest rate for 15-36 month terms decreased by 0.4%/year to 9%/year; 12-month-term interest rates also decreased by 0.4% to 8.9%/year; and for a term of 6-11 months, the interest rate dropped to 8.8%/year. Notably, after the meeting with the SBV on February 8th, a number of large commercial banks met and agreed to reduce deposit interest rates in order to reduce lending rates.

With such signals, and the pressure to support the exchange rate ease, experts from BVSC believe that the pressure to raise interest rates will subside in 2023. Instead, monetary policy this year is likely to move towards supporting growth. BVSC expects interest rates to fall again in 2023 with clearer signs from the second quarter when the US Federal Reserve (FED) stopped raising interest rates and Vietnam’s inflation cooled down.

In fact, high interest rates are a concern of businesses in this difficult period. Statistics of the SBV at the end of December 2022 showed that the average lending interest rate of domestic commercial banks for new and old loans with outstanding balances was at 9.0-10.7%/ year. The average short-term lending interest rate in VND for priority sectors is about 4.7%/year, which is lower than the maximum short-term lending rate prescribed by the SBV (5.5%/year).

The average USD lending interest rate of domestic commercial banks for new and old loans with outstanding balance is at 3.9-5.4%/year for short-term and 5.8-5.9%/year for medium and long-term. Meanwhile, according to the survey, the lending interest rate level of commercial banks in the market is currently lending popular interest rates is 12-13%/year for medium and long-term loans. The high lending interest rate has caused difficulties for production and business activities.

Therefore, right after deposit interest rates showed signs of cooling down, commercial banks made appropriate adjustments. MB Bank has applied a 1% reduction in lending interest rates for corporate customers with a turnover of less than 100 billion VND. BIDV also implemented a new short-term loan package with a scale of 30 trillion VND to serve production and business needs for customers, with preferential interest rates from 8%/year.

For customers who want to borrow money to buy houses or cars, consume or produce, and do business, BIDV has launched a new medium and long-term loan package with many incentives: loan interest rates from 10.3%/year in the first 12 months, and from 10.9%/year for 18 months from the time of first disbursement (for individual customers with medium and long-term loans under loan products for housing needs).

Specifically, when customers apply for medium and long-term loans at BIDV (loan period of more than 12 months), they will have the opportunity to receive additional incentives, including an additional 0.2% discount for home loan customers applying via the BIDV Home application or customers who receive their salary through BIDV.

Earlier, at the beginning of the year, Vietcombank was also the first commercial bank to announce a 0.5% reduction in lending interest rates for individual and institutional customers with existing and new outstanding loans at the bank, except for a group of clients operating in risky fields such as real estate, securities, etc.

@ NDO

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Vietnam will continue to implement new technologies and policies in its bid to become a cashless country, said banking experts and policymakers in a conference on Friday discussing the current situation of cashless technology in the country.

“The central bank has established numerous policy frameworks for the implementation of electronic payment technologies, such as personal bank accounts based on electronic Know-Your-Customers tech, mobile money and other payment methods including using QR code and chip cards”, the governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), Nguyen Thi Hong spoke at the event.

In addition, payment solutions and infrastructure have been developing rapidly and integrated with a wide variety of products and services. They have been well-received by consumers for their security, speed and convenience.

Government support policies during the pandemic, which included e-banking fee reductions and other incentives to encourage consumers to reduce cash-based transactions, have resulted in the rapid development of cashless payment technology in the country, according to a report by Vietnam News Agency.

Since 2020, banks have cut over VND2 trillion in banking fees and processed 80 per cent of all personal banking transactions free of charge.

According to SBV Deputy Governor Pham Tien Dung, 95 per cent of all financial institutions in Vietnam have been developing their own digitalization strategy. Currently, over 80 banks have offered customers e-banking services; 44 banks have offered mobile banking services and 45 fintech firms offer payment intermediary services. Across the country, there are currently over 90,000 stores that accept QR code payments and nearly 300,000 PoS terminals.

Vietnam’s objectives, in the near future, is to continue to support banking and payment technologies, to connect isolated and rural parts of the country with banking systems, to provide small-amount transactions electronically nationwide, to provide 24/7 automatic financial services and to update electronic payment security features.

In addition, SBV is to work closely with the press in an effort to encourage Vietnamese consumers to switch to cashless payments with an emphasis on security, speed and convenience.

“Making the switch to cashless payments will result in reduced risks for consumers, lower operating costs for financial institutions and improved transparency,” said Le Thi Thuy Sen, head of SBV’s Public Communication Department.

During the first nine months of the year, the number of transactions done using the electronic banking system increased by 1.88 per cent and 42.58 per cent in value compared to the same period last year. The number of internet payments increased by 51.16 per cent.

By the end of September, the number of personal bank accounts reached nearly 111 million, a 15.4 per cent increase compared to the same period last year, Vietnam News Agency reported.

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Vietnam’s central bank said on Monday it will continue to pursue a “flexible monetary policy” for the rest of this year to keep inflation under control, maintain macro stability and support an economic recovery, Reuters reported.

In an emailed statement, the State Bank of Vietnam also said total lending by banks rose 5.1% as of June 15 from the end of 2020.

Previously, on April 24th, 2021, SBV Deputy Governor Dao Minh Tu said, SBV will keep a proactive and flexible monetary policy based on market developments and forecasts for the macro-economy, Vietnam News Agency reported.

This monetary policy is meant to control this year’s inflation within the targeted ceiling of about 4 per cent, support macroeconomic stabilization, assist economic recovery, ensure liquidity, maintain stability in the monetary and forex markets, and create conditions to reduce capital expenses for people, businesses, and the economy as a whole, the official said.

The SBV will maintain a close watch on domestic and foreign macro-economic and monetary changes, foreign exchange rate developments, as well as foreign currency demand and supply to set appropriate exchange rates, he noted, adding that it will carry out measures and policy tools to stabilize exchange rates and the forex market to help ensure macro-economic stability.

Credit provision will be boosted, especially for priority fields to match economic restructuring and help fuel growth and stabilize the macroeconomy.

Tu also stressed the need to tighten control over credit for high-risk areas like real estate, transport projects in build-operate-transfer (BOT) and build-transfer (BT) formats, and securities while at the same time adopting solutions to tackle difficulties facing those hit hardest by the COVID-19 pandemic and natural disasters.

The central bank will order credit institutions to facilitate people and enterprises’ access to credit to help minimize loan-sharking, he said.

The SBV said that since the beginning of the year, it has flexibly and synchronously used monetary policy tools to ensure liquidity for the banking system, stabilize the monetary market, and help reduce input cost for credit organizations, easing the pressure on deposit and lending interest rates, according to Vietnam News Agency.

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