• Commercial banks have continuously announced lending interest rate reductions to support and accompany customers to overcome the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• More stories at Vietnam Insider’s homepage.

Vietcombank was the latest to announce a rate cut for loans from August 18, 2021 to December 31, 2021 for all businesses and individuals severely affected by the pandemic in 19 southern provinces and cities and currently applying social distancing according to the Government’s Directive 16.

This was Vietcombank’s ninth interest rate reduction to support businesses and people affected by the pandemic and natural disasters since the beginning of 2020.

Specifically, Vietcombank has continued to reduce interest rates of up to 0.5 per cent per year for all outstanding loans of customers in HCM City and Bình Dương Province. The decreasing rate for customers in other southern provinces and cities under the application of social distancing including Đồng Nai, Cần Thơ, Bình Phước, Tây Ninh, Bà Rịa – Vũng Tàu, Tiền Giang, Long An, Vĩnh Long, Đồng Tháp, Bến Tre, Hậu Giang, An Giang, Bạc Liêu, Sóc Trăng, Trà Vinh, Cà Mau, Kiên Giang is 0.3 per cent per year.

Previously, Vietcombank implemented a policy of reducing interest rates worth up to VNĐ1.8 trillion to support customers affected by the pandemic nationwide from July 15, 2021 to December 31, 2021 with a reduction of 0.5-1 per cent per year depending on the customers.

BIDV has announced to set aside up to VNĐ1 trillion to reduce lending interest rates for existing loans, and deploy new loan packages with low interest rates from this month to December 31, 2021.

Specifically, BIDV’s interest rate has been reduced by 0.5-1.5 per cent per year for existing outstanding loans up to July 15, 2021 of enterprises whose business and production have faced difficulties due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The maximum reduction has been applied for loans that have been heavily affected in industries including transportation, healthcare, education, accommodation services, restaurant services, hotels and resorts.

Meanwhile, at VietinBank, a VNĐ20 trillion preferential credit package with an interest rate of 4.0 per cent per year has just been added, increasing the total value of the package to VNĐ150 trillion.

Agribank has also continued to spend VNĐ5.5 trillion to cut lending rates for customers until the end of this year.

Many other banks such as ACB, SeABank, MSB, HDBank, Sacombank have also announced a popular interest rate reduction of 1 per cent per year for customers with difficulties, applied from July 15, 2021.

Regarding the implementation of interest rate reduction and free banking services provision to support customers affected by the pandemic, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) recently issued Official Dispatch No. 5901/NHNN-TD, requiring commercial banks to reduce lending interest rates as per their previous commitments.

Previously, under the SBV’s direction, the Vietnam Banks Association held a meeting with the participation of 16 commercial banks who voluntarily agreed to cut interest rates of about VNĐ20.3 trillion from now until the end of this year, depending on the size of the bank, to support the economy amid the pandemic.

SBV’s Deputy Governor Đào Minh Tú said the central bank would strengthen supervision of the implementation of the dispatch.

By Dan Tri.

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Source: Vietnam Insider

In early July 2021, Vietnam reported a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic and that resulted in lockdowns, restrictions and disruption to supply chains and businesses shutdown. Vietnam was one of the few countries in South East Asia to report an economic growth during the pandemic.

It is expected Vietnam’s Fund Management Industry can be recovered from the Covid 19 pandemic. Although the Vietnamese authorities tried to regulate the sector, it was reported on International Investment the industry rose 20% year on year. According to the vice chairman of State Securities Commission (SSC) Pham Hong Son, the Vietnamese regulators plan to grow the industry by tightening the licensing process and setting up new and tough rules for new fund management companies “that would help Vietnamese fund management companies meet international standards and practices, and keep the local equity market developing in a sustainable and secure manner,” he said.

It is estimated that Vietnam Fund Management Activities combined managed assets of funds and energy companies as well as those owned by banks. Vietnam has a number of funds management companies with billions of dollars’ worth of assets under its management. For example, one of the biggest fund firm KIM Vietnam Growth Securities Master Investment Trust manage assets worth more than $850 million.

As I wrote about the Euro and Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) before, EVFTA would have a big impact on Vietnam’s economy. Vietnam signed a free trade agreement with the EU and this agreement will gradually reduce most tariffs, regulatory barriers, and red tape and promote should create opportunities for both sides to do business.

New venture fund companies have incorporated gradually in recent months despite the impact of the Covid19 pandemic in Vietnam. It was reported in February 2020 that Korean Investment Management acquired almost 99 percent of 2.5 million shares of Hung Viet Fund Management JSC (HVCapital). Vietnam’s State Securities Commission (SSC) approved this deal. Early September 2020, Nguyen Manh Dzung (Shark Dzung ) was into partnership with Le Hoang Uyen Vy to establish a new fund venture firm called Do Ventures with a total management fund of 50 million USD. “The Vietnamese consumer market is at a tipping point, and is poised for tech companies to launch innovative products. We are passionate about the opportunity to drive economic growth in the country at this critical moment, “said Manh Dzung, co-founder of Do Ventures.

Fund management firms like to invest in food entrepreneurs in Vietnam amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Food technology startups, such as making meat substitutes based on plant ingredients or other foods based on laboratory cultures, are appealing to venture capital firms. This trend was further strengthened during the epidemic period when consumer awareness of clean food increased. Green Monday Holdings, a company which makes pork substitutes made from vegetable ingredients and runs a chain of vegetarian food retailers in Hong Kong, said it had received $70 million from an investor group led by The Rise Fund and Swire Pacific.

Despite the negative impact of the Covid 19 pandemic, it was reported by a local newspaper the profit growth of top companies on Vietnam HOSE index was significant. As on 03/08/2021, there are 288 out of 378 companies reported trading profits in the second quarter of 2021. According to data from Rong Viet Securities Company (VDSC), the growth of the total profit after tax of these enterprises was 46.1% compared to the second quarter of 2020, opening up opportunities for investors and the fund industry.

Vietnam Fund Management Industry would be grown and entered into a new phrase in the next coming years if the pandemic was controlled in Vietnam, and the spotlight will shift to how potential investors can invest in this sector.

By Thoi Nguyen

Thoi Nguyen is a columnist. A graduate of the University of West London, he has written on developments in Vietnam and has also consulted for businesses and governments. He deals with all of his personal and professional businesses both in Vietnam and the UK. He can be reached by email (thoinet80@gmail.com), on Twitter (@thoigen) and Facebook (Nguyen Thoi).

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Source: Vietnam Insider

Getting around by bicycle was once a traditional transportation method in Việt Nam’s capital city.

But as time moved on, so too did travel habits, and push bikes were quickly overtaken by motorcycles on Hà Nội’s roads.

Now it seems cycles are making a comeback, thanks mainly to the COVID-19 pandemic.

With the closure of gymnasiums due to increased social distancing regulations, many keep-fitters are swapping their gym gear for cycling shorts.

Bicycle shops say they have noticed a sharp increase in new business as more and more people are hitting the road to stay in shape.

“My shop is selling locally-made and imported bikes from prestige foreign companies,” said Văn Đức, who own Anh Quân bike shop on Bà Triệu street.

“These days, my shop sells between 20-25 bikes per day, up between 15-20 per cent compared to before the pandemic.”

Hà Thu, another shop owner on the same street, agreed.

She said: “The pandemic has caused economic difficulties, so many people change their thinking and buy bicycles to minimise daily costs such as gas, parking fees and to exercise.

“Since May, my shop is selling twice as many bikes as usual at around 30 bikes a day.”

Phạm Duy, a bike shop owner in Đan Phượng District of Hà Nội believes people are also concerned about travelling on public transport because of overcrowding.

“COVID-19 has changed many people’s habits,” Duy said.

“All the gyms and yoga studios have closed and travel restrictions have made many people bored as they want to go outside for physical exercise.

“During the pandemic, riding bikes provided one of the easiest ways to get outside and get exercise while also practising social distancing.”

Customer Minh Lưu from Xuân Đỉnh District added: “I came here to buy a bike for my daughter to help her get ready for the next school year. Due to the pandemic, I want her to exercise more, so I bought this bike for her to exercise in the morning also.”

Teacher Nguyễn Mạnh Anh from Cầu Giấy District ditched his motorbike a year ago and began to cycle instead. Now his whole family has followed suit.

“All the gyms, sport centres and parks were closed due to the pandemic,” he said. “I paid VNĐ5 million for the bike to ride to work and do physical exercise.

“My wife and son also bought one each to use at the weekends for health benefits.”

Computer engineer Thành Nam opted to rent a bike instead of buying one.

He said: “I often ride around Hồ Tây (West Lake) in the afternoon as there is fresh air there and the gym I often go to is now closed because of the pandemic.

“There are many bikes for rent around the West Lake and the price was very cheap, it costs around VNĐ40,000 (US$1.7) to rent a bike for three hours, and usually it doesn’t cost extra money for extra time.”

Trung Phong sales director of State-run Thống Nhất Bicycle Company said the impact of the pandemic has helped the bicycle market in recent months.

He said the domestic bicycle market share was estimated to reach between 2-3 million units per year.

Bikes made by Thống Nhất company accounted for about 10 per cent of the local market share with around 200,000-300,000 units per year.

Since the beginning of this year, his company has sold more than 100,000 bikes, marking an increase of about 1.5 times compared to the same period last year. The company now has nearly 400 bike shops and sales agents nationwide.

A representative of AEON Vietnam said that this year they have seen a dramatic increase in bicycle sales with a growth rate of between 200 and 300 per cent compared to last year and they predict it will continue to rise for the rest of the year.

According to bike dealers, although there has been a sharp increase this year, there had been a steady sales growth pre-pandemic with people opting for ‘greener’ travel alternatives.

But many feel the domestic market is still lacking the presence of professional retail chains and the majority of bike shops are managed by smaller, independent traders.

The long-term future is bright, and as the economy develops, more and more people will take to cycling to improve health and living conditions.

Industry insiders also feel with an increase in construction of residential areas and urbanisation, plans are in place to install designated cycle lanes which will give cyclists more confidence to ride safely.

Traffic congestion will be gradually solved as more people will move away from using motorbikes or cars and users will shift from private vehicle use to public transport, waking and cycling.

The bicycle sharing service and bike industry will also be developed and soon become an optimal choice for users who want to bike for short distances.

This article was originally published in vietnamnews

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Source: Vietnam Insider

Cambodia has re-opened its borders with Vietnam after banning cross-border movement more than three months ago due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Foreign Affairs Ministry secretary of state Ouch Borith said Vietnam had already been informed of the June 19 decision.

However, it is unclear whether Vietnam will reciprocate with a similar move.

Related: Experts say we are still in the 1st wave of virus cases

Borith said Vietnamese nationals entering Cambodia must adhere to the health measures implemented by the country.

“For Vietnamese nationals, especially technicians, investors, and students, they may get other visas except for a tourist visa,” he said.

The Khmer Times reports General Keo Vanthorn, deputy director at the Ministry of Interior’s Immigration Department, confirming the opening of the border, saying it would boost economic, investments and trade between the two countries, and allow businessmen to travel.

Vietnamese Ambassador to Cambodia Vu Quang Minh said this easing of restriction would allow students to return to their universities in Vietnam and Cambodia.

“Our countries have managed the epidemic well so far, with no deaths and more than two months of no community transmissions. We both can be proud and think about measures to mutually ease travel restrictions between us.”

Centre for Policy Studies director Chan Sophal also expressed support for the lifting of border restrictions although concerns linger over a new wave of infections.

He said now was a “suitable time” to allow travel between the two nations.

He encouraged the reopening of borders shared with Thailand and Laos so economic activities with the countries could resume.

“However, the reopening of the borders must come with a mechanism to control the risk of virus transmission. It does not mean that we will allow them to enter our country freely.”

In related news, Cambodia’s Banteay Meanchey provincial governor met officials from Thailand’s Sa Kaeo province to discuss the reopening of the Poipet- Khlong Luk international checkpoint, the most important border point shared by the two nations.

The meeting comes after traders requested the re-opening as up to 12,000 Cambodian vendors with stalls in Sa Kaeo were suffering since its closure.

The Phnom Penh Post said Asean countries were discussing possible measures to rejuvenate tourism throughout the region.

Last Friday, Asean nations convened via videoconferencing for the Conference of Federation of Asean Travel Associations to discuss the reopening of borders.

According to a Tourism ministry Facebook post, the discussion touched on policies to promote domestic tourism between Asean countries.

Its director-general of Tourism Development and International Cooperation, Thong Rathsak, said each country presented policies and measures, but a timeframe for border openings was unclear.

“All the Asean countries prepared a plan for advancing travel in the region, but for the opening of borders and airspace, no country has set specific dates yet.”

Rathsak said 1.16 million international tourists arrived in Cambodia from January to March, a 38 per cent decrease from the same period last year.

Reporting by NST

No government is likely to fall as a result of its COVID-19 response, the impact on politics is still significant.

COVID-19 hit Southeast Asia earlier than most regions of the world, and today the region has over 90,000 cases, with more than 2,700 confirmed deaths. The low levels of testing in all states, bar Singapore, however, should give rise to skepticism. The virus is likely far more prevalent than what governments are admitting, and anecdotal evidence suggests that there are far more deaths than what has been officially reported.

The pandemic has wreaked havoc on the economies of Southeast Asia, which are dependent on tourism and exports. The IMF is predicting a global economic contraction of 3 percent, and all evidence suggests that the globalized economies of Southeast Asia will be deeply impacted, with recessions in Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

How will COVID-19 impact politics in the region?

On the surface, we see little change. There are only three countries that have scheduled elections or routine political transitions coming months. With a new COVID-19 election bill passed earlier this month, Singapore is moving ahead with elections as soon as infections drop; Myanmar announced that elections will proceed as planned by year’s end, but is introducing a series of administrative changes due to limitations posed by the virus. Vietnam will hold its quinquennial Party Congress in January 2021 and will be sure to capitalize on its COVID-19 management success.

The pandemic response in Indonesia has exposed Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s weakness, but with elections just held in 2019 it’s not going to change the government. In Thailand, Cambodia, and the Philippines, the response to COVID-19 has simply accelerated the authoritarian trends of the leadership. In fact, COVID-19 has strengthened incumbents, giving them space to capitalize on fear and displace challengers.

This does not mean that all leaders are safe or the trend will last. Weak leaders are more exposed. COVID-19 has constrained patronage to appease challengers, resources have contracted as economies have shrunk ,and the costs of responding to the virus have increased.

Ultra-royalist elites in Thailand have questioned Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s competence for a while, and there has been a growing push to replace him and key cabinet members, though leaving the military-backed coalition in place. Despite reopening the economy, the Emergency Decree remains in place.

Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s attempt to dodge a vote of no confidence has done him no favors. Leaders who lack broad public mandates and face elite challengers are vulnerable and beholden to their allies. They have to spend time politicking rather than focusing on crisis response.

All that said, we’re not predicting any immediate political COVID casualties. The intensity of the economic crisis tied to COVID-19 will be more determinant than the public health challenges.

We see five distinct political trends that will impact politics in the medium term.

The first is an abject failure in governance in many countries. States have basic obligations to provide security, education, public health, and a legal system to their electorates. In country after country, public health systems were exposed to be underfunded and poorly staffed. Governments were caught flat-footed despite seeing the crisis unfold in China and experiencing other public health scares since the 2003 SARS outbreak.

With the exceptions of Singapore, Vietnam, and Malaysia, governments in the region were slow to respond to COVID-19, sent mixed and confusing messages, peddled quackery, were largely in denial, and proved unwilling to defer to medical and public health advice.

In a region that is based on notions of paternalistic leadership, including the region’s few democracies, where people are not supposed to question the state, there is now a growing realization that government does not know best. Revered politicians have fallen off their pedestals.

Demands for greater competence and embrace of science-based approaches, especially among the younger generations, is sowing the seeds of new political forces. Civic-mindedness has already sustained mobilization at local levels and it is only a matter of time until such sentiments translate into greater demands for accountability and political movements. In Indonesia, the hashtag “Whatever Indonesia” is trending; an expression of frustration with the government’s chaotic response.

It is telling that in Thailand, Cambodia, and the Philippines the governments immediately adopted emergency decrees. Indonesia’s president considered adopting one. Governments were unable to cope with the pandemic with existing institutions and authorities and aimed for extended power, but these emergency powers, in all cases, were used to go after dissent first.

Second, the weakness exposed by COVID-19 has caused militaries to gain more prominence.

In Indonesia and the Philippines, the weakness of the government response has forced the presidents to rely on militaries and security forces to backstop their flailing responses.

In Indonesia, this has been welcome news for the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI), which has sought to claw back many of the civil-administrative powers that it lost following the collapse of the New Order regime in 1998. Jokowi’s entire COVID-19 response team is staffed by acting and retired generals who are responding with an insurgency-based approach, an abject failure as the pandemic continues to spiral out of control.

We have seen the same thing in the Philippines, where Duterte’s COVID-response team is comprised of retired and acting generals, not medical professionals. The result has been a militarized response not informed by public health. Meanwhile, Duterte has called security forces to shoot people who violate quarantine orders on sight.

In Myanmar, the military has assumed a role in crisis-management, pitting itself against Aung San Sui Kyi’s National League for Democracy during an election year and at the same time using the distraction of the crisis to ratchet up fighting in ethnic conflict areas.

While regional militaries are providing order and using the crisis to accumulate power (and money), they are also exposing their poor capacity to manage public health problems.

Third, the greater role that security forces are playing accentuates authoritarianism. Many governments are adopting securitization to address the crisis and simultaneously cracking down on critics of the crisis response. This is worryingly happening in the region’s more open regimes.

In Malaysia, we’ve seen a shocking attack on the free press, which for the past two years had seen the most notable improvements in the region. A journalist was summoned to police headquarters for her reporting on the roundup of migrant workers. While there is no evidence of an overall shift in government policy to reverse the positive trajectory on press freedoms, such incidents point to increased intolerance of alternative views.

In Indonesia, circumstances surrounding the charges against researcher Ravio Patra, who raised questions about Jokowi’s COVID-19 response, raise even further questions.

COVID-19 is being used to curb discussion and necessary criticism – often dismissed and framed as “disinformation.” Thailand, Singapore, and Cambodia have all wielded their “fake news” laws to that effect, while Duterte has increased his use of the cyber crime law to target dissenters. This comes at a time where governments are breaking down the boundaries of privacy via the centrally controlled use of applications to track and trace citizens.

Fourth, the pandemic has exposed the glaring inequities around the region. Singapore, which received accolades as being the “gold standard” of pandemic responses, has seen the largest number of cases in the region. An overwhelming majority of the more than 35,000 cases (as of June 1), have been in the crowded dormitories for the 324,000 migrant workers who make the country’s first world living standards possible.

Thailand, whose excellent public health and medical systems have responded well to the crisis, has been unable and unwilling to address the large numbers of poor that can ill-afford a prolonged shutdown. COVID-19 has seen a rise in other health problems, as well as hunger and helplessness. In Thailand the number of suicides has soared.

Thailand, according to a the 2018 Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook, is the most inequitable society in the world, a trend that has been exacerbated since the 2006 coup d’etat. The military and ultra-royalist elites simply do not care about the underclass, and as such the government has done little to support them. Thai government official are now predicting that some 14 million workers could be unemployed in the second and third quarters of 2020.

But inequality is rife around the region, and all countries have rising Gini coefficients. A prolonged economic recession will further exacerbate existing inequalities. The region’s social safety nets have serious holes and do not provide broad cover for those who need them.

In the Philippines, Duterte has tried to direct COVID-19 relief funding to the poorest segments of society, but simply doesn’t have the resources to do so in a meaningful way. The Indonesian and Malaysian governments are in a similar predicament – although in Malaysia’s case the former Najib government decimated the country’s finances in the 1MDB scandal.

COVID-19 spread through globalization, but it is a stark reminder that what made the rapid economic growth in Southeast Asia possible has been distributed inequitably. Unless the poorest and most marginalized of a society have adequate protections, then no one does.

The final trend is the growth of polarizing, identity politics, exacerbated by a vociferous religious fringe and rising xenophobic nationalism. This is not new. We’ve seen extremists Buddhist monks in Myanmar fan the flames of a genocide, the sudden reassertion of chauvinist identity politics in Malaysia, and the wielding of Islamist politics in Indonesia.

Both governments and the people have already proven quick to scapegoat certain communities for the spread of the pandemic. Thai leaders blamed Western tourists, ignoring community transmission. In Singapore and Malaysia, the blame quickly fell on migrant workers. In Indonesia, Islamists immediately resorted to their default position: blaming the Chinese community.

In any crisis, there is an innate response to scapegoating, but what is so telling in COVID-19 is that governments are not stepping in to counter those destructive narratives, instead often using them to distract from their own responsibility and their lackluster responses.

Extremist religious groups are poised to take advantage of both the emotions of COVID-19 – fear and insecurity – and well as government weaknesses; they will capitalize on the inequities of society and to try to mobilize their constituents through scapegoating out-groups.

Despite these trends that should cause alarm for governments and the elites who back them, they have several things in their favor. First, the weakness of the political oppositions. While we have seen the Thai and Philippine presidents further consolidate their authoritarian grips and go to lengths to crush the free press, the reality is that they have sustained a long-term assault on the political opposition.

Duterte has jailed political opponents on trumped-up charges, marginalized his vice president (who hails from the opposition party), and trounced opposition figures in the midterm elections. With a stacked parliament and supreme court, Duterte has wielded the police as a hit squad in his war on drugs, without any due process, oversight, or accountability. COVID-19 has seen even greater attacks on the opposition and the shuttering of the largest media conglomerate.

In Thailand, the military-backed government has used the courts to dissolve political parties and bring legal cases against opposition figures, already having stolen an election in March 2019. The government wields enormous coercive legal powers through its arbitrarily applied Computer Crimes Act and lese majeste provisions of its criminal code.

In Indonesia, the opposition was largely co-opted by Jokowi when he brought his long-time political rival Prabowo Subianto into government as the minister of defense. The remainder of the opposition is a very loose coalition of parties that have little ideological or policy affinity for one another.

In Malaysia, the recently ousted Pakatan Harapan faces divisions over leadership and grapples with winning a new national base, especially among Malays, and among its own base who are dissatisfied with their slow record of implementing reforms while in office from 2018 until February of this year.

In Singapore, an expanded opposition has yet to resolve internal differences. While people may cast votes for the opposition, it is usually only a way to signal displeasure with the ruling People’s Action Party rather than voting for an alternative.

In short, political oppositions across the region are weak, divided, and largely unable to work together. In several cases, they are simply not up to the task of governing at all.

The second thing in favor of governments is the ability to distract. Governments can manufacture security incidents and political crises. As no country in Southeast Asia has a truly free press, governments can use mainstream media to push certain narratives. They have more resources at their disposal to rent a mob or an army of cyber trolls to shape opinions on social media. While there may be opposition and dissent, the government has greater coercive power as well as the ability to mobilize. COVID-19 at least in the short term limits the ability for mass protests, forcing criticism to be localized or online.

The third tool at their disposal is patronage. While traditional patronage has shrunk in COVID-19, we will likely see the fire sale of government assets to cronies or potential political rivals as governments face soaring budget deficits amidst recession. Increasingly, as has happened in earlier crises, regimes will shore up oligarchs as policies move toward protecting elites over ordinary citizens.

While no government is likely to fall in the short term as a result of its COVID-19 response, the impact on politics is significant. The pandemic has exposed weaknesses in governance capacity, weak leadership, and rising inequalities, to which governments have responded with an overreliance on security forces and onslaughts on critics. At the same time, they have tried to buy off challengers through patronage, keeping the political opposition weak and allowed distracting scapegoating narratives to take root — exposing their own fragility. In the short term COVID-19 has been a political opportunity for many governments, but as the crisis deepens with contracting economies the pathogens within these regimes may also spread.

Zachary Abuza is a professor at the National War College, Washington, DC and an adjunct at Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program. The views are his personal opinions and do not reflect the opinions of the National War College or the U.S. Department of Defense.

Bridget Welsh is Honorary Research Associate, UNoARI, University of Nottingham Malaysia and a lead author of the Asia Barometer Surveys.

This article originally posted on The Diplomat

The novel coronavirus that causes the respiratory disease COVID-19, and that was first detected in China, has now been detected in 60+ locations internationally, including in the United States. In response, some Americans are cancelling and/or limiting both domestic travel and travel to outbreak hotspots (including Italy, China, Iran, South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong) and preparing for what might happen if the virus becomes widespread. 

For freelancers and small businesses, especially those in the events industry, this may mean an uptick in rescheduled/cancelled events and/or a decline in business due to community-based interventions and general fear, uncertainty and doubt among many people. 

While it’s natural to feel nervous about what’s to come, there are steps you can take today to minimize the potential impact coronavirus (and actually any type of health emergency or natural disaster) has on your business. Think of this as a business continuity plan for small business to strengthen your business during times of uncertainty.

A business continuity plan for small business:

How to prepare your business for coronavirus

1. Get and stay informed
2. Revisit your cancellation and rescheduling policies
3. Add three clauses into your contract templates: Force Majeure Clause, Safe Working Environment Clause, and Failure of Company to Perform Services Clause
4. Create a strategy to battle cancellations
5. Proactively manage your client relationships
6. Issue a message to inquiries/clients
7. Know how to enforce retainer payments for cancelled events/projects
8. Plan for backup help
9. Get video meeting software
10. Understand your financial position
11. Identify new revenue streams
12. Pivot your business strategy
13. Create a playbook
14. Identify ways to supplement income
15. Tap into city resources
16. Start saving now
17. Take care of yourself, your family and your team
18. Lean on community 

Business continuity plan for small business: Things you can do right now

1. Get and stay informed

Stay up to date with official news sources, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO). By staying informed, you can better prepare for what’s coming and gain a sense of control (even if just a little) over the rapidly evolving situation. And being equipped with the facts will help you educate (and calm) any nervous inquiries and clients.

2. Revisit your cancellation and rescheduling policies

Wondering how to legally protect your business from unforeseen circumstances like the coronavirus? We went straight to an expert to find out and consulted attorney Paige Griffith of The Legal Paige. 

“First and foremost, a service provider’s cancellation and rescheduling policies should still be laid out very clearly with deadlines,” says Paige. “Industry standard is generally 30 days prior to the event/session/wedding date for your clients to be able to cancel or reschedule and only forfeit the retainer, but not incur any remaining fees. However, ‘Force Majeure Events’ are different. Thus, if you or your clients want to excuse performance to an unforeseeable, unavoidable, or impossible event, that’s where a Force Majeure Clause would kick in to protect you.”

Paige recommends people include a Force Majeure clause that clearly explains your business’s policies for excusing performance related to such events and, specifically, include “epidemics and pandemics” as qualified Force Majeure Events (see #3 for more details). Paige notes, “Oftentimes Force Majeure clauses are more basic and include occurrences such as ‘acts of God, natural disasters, government orders or laws, or strikes.’ It’s better to list out all qualified Force Majeure events and include the language ‘including, but not limited to’ to expand the types of Force Majeure events under your contract.”

Essentially, a cancellation and rescheduling clause is in place for any other reason that your client may cancel or reschedule. But Force Majeure Events are not part of that and have a different procedure in place for cancellations and rescheduling situations. The non-refundable retainer still applies under both clauses so long as you expressly delineate that policy under your contract, but Force Majeure provides additional protection because it requires you to excuse performance under the contract until the Force Majeure Event is resolved.

Also important to note is that we are NOT in Force Majeure land right now.

Paige explains, “Right now, coronavirus is likely not going to be interpreted as a qualified ‘Force Majeure Event’ under most contracts. There has been no official national government order regarding the outbreak. Thus, if a client wants to cancel or reschedule your services and cries ‘Force Majeure!’ and wants a full refund, it won’t hold up. Hysteria or fear of traveling does not qualify as Force Majeure. A Force Majeure Event quite literally has to make the performance by a party impossible and right now you can still travel, get on a plane, and be in person-to-person contact. Thus, we are still in the land of general cancellation and rescheduling situations, so your policies expressed in your contract apply as well as your non-refundable retainer.”

Want to learn more about protection clauses that you should have in your contract to protect yourself from unforeseen events? This checklist from The Legal Paige will tell you what clauses are needed and describes what they mean to you and your business. Get Checklist >

3. Add three clauses into your contract templates

As part of a business continuity plan for small business, Paige recommends modifying or adding three big clauses into your existing contract templates: (1) Force Majeure Clause, (2) Safe Working Environment Clause, and (3) Failure of Company to Perform Services Clause.

Wondering what all that means? Let’s break down each one below: 

A Force Majeure clause (1) specifies the events which enable either party to declare a force majeure/act of God event, (2) how a party should notify its counterparty about the occurrence, and (3) the consequences after a force majeure event has occurred (see #4 for ideas on consequences you could consider). A force majeure clause should apply to each party to the agreement. 

“Most often I see contracts missing parts 2 and 3 in their force majeure clause,” says Paige. “People should be sure to spell out that ‘epidemics and pandemics’ are included as qualified Force Majeure Events, and indicate the number of days following the Force Majeure Event that the other party may terminate and the remedies allowed. Also, as it stands [at the date of publication March 9, 2020], the COVID-19 outbreak and its consequences are no longer fully unpredictable and may therefore not qualify as a ‘Force Majeure Event’ in contracts that are entered into right now. Be sure to have other clauses in place such as Safe Working Environment Clause and Failure of Company to Perform Services Clause to protect yourself in case the Force Majeure Clause is not applicable.”

Need a Force Majeure clause for your contracts? Just copy and paste the Force Majeure clause language below into your own existing contract templates.

Force majeure clause:

No party shall be liable or responsible to the other party, nor be deemed to have defaulted under or breached this Agreement, for any failure or delay in fulfilling or performing any term of this Agreement (except for any obligations to make payments to the other party hereunder), when and to the extent such failure or delay is caused by or results from acts beyond the impacted party’s (“Impacted Party”) control, including, but not limited to, the following force majeure events (“Force Majeure Events”): (a) acts of God; (b) a natural disaster (fires, explosions, earthquakes, hurricane, flooding, storms, explosions, infestations), epidemic, or pandemic; (c) war, invasion, hostilities (whether war is declared or not), terrorist threats or acts, riot or other civil unrest; (d) government order or law; (e) actions, embargoes or blockades in effect on or after the date of this Agreement; (f) action by any governmental authority; (g) national or regional emergency; (h) strikes, labor stoppages or slowdowns or other industrial disturbances; and (i) shortage of adequate power or transportation facilities. The Impacted Party shall give Notice within [number] days of the Force Majeure Event to the other party, stating the period of time the occurrence is expected to continue. The Impacted Party shall use diligent efforts to end the failure or delay and ensure the effects of such Force Majeure Event are minimized. The Impacted Party shall resume the performance of its obligations as soon as reasonably practicable after the removal of the cause. In the event that the Impacted Party’s failure or delay remains uncured for a period of [number] days following Notice given by it, the other party may thereafter terminate this Agreement upon Notice.

Disclaimer: This force majeure clause template is provided for your convenience to help protect your business and minimize the impact from coronavirus and other types of health emergencies and natural disasters as part of a business continuity plan for small business. We consulted with attorney Paige Griffith, J.D., of The Legal Paige, who wrote the Force Majeure clause. While a professional was consulted, this is not provided as a substitute for legal advice. If you have any questions about this template or your finished contract as it relates to your specific business, please contact a licensed attorney.

A Safe Working Environment clause tells your clients that your company maintains a safe work environment at all times and complies with all health and safety laws, directives and rules and regulations. Thus, you can reserve the right to discontinue service in the event some unsafe conditions arose such as areas affected by communicable diseases.

A Failure of Company to Perform Services clause ensures that your clients understand the procedure should you not be able to perform your services. “It’s important under this clause to allow your clients to agree to the substitution of another professional and not require such substitution,” Paige says. “And, in the event they do not allow you to substitute or you cannot find a substitute, you will issue a refund or credit based on the percentage of the services you’ve rendered thus far.”

4. Create a strategy to battle cancellations 

If you’re worried about cancellations, the best strategy is to be prepared and proactive. 

Be prepared by thinking through “the consequences after a force majeure event has occurred.” Let’s say a client wants to cancel within 30 days of the event (even if your cancellation policy states they need to provide at least 30 days) due to an unforeseen event. What does that mean for you and your business? 

As a best practice, we recommend doing everything in your power to work with your client to reschedule for a time when everyone is confident about moving forward and healthy enough to do so. If a mutually agreed upon date cannot be reached, your client will be able to cancel and forfeit only the retainer, but not incur any remaining fees under the Agreement. (See step #7 for how to enforce retainer payments for cancelled events/projects.)

In addition to identifying what you’ll do in the face of an unforeseen event, be sure to proactively communicate with inquiries and clients. This can help set their minds at ease, reducing your cancellation/chargeback risk. (See #5 for more details.)

5. Proactively manage your client relationships

Strong relationships are everything in the face of uncertainty, especially with setting expectations and avoiding cancellations. Now is the time to foster and lean on your client relationships as part of your business continuity plan for small business. “Over communication in these situations is also helpful so if a client is feeling unsure, they can lean on the professional to help lead in making decisions,” says Reina Pomeroy of Reina + Co.

If you’ve been doing a good job of relating to your clients and building that trust, it should be easier to reach an ideal outcome for both you and your client if the event can’t take place. Hopefully that outcome is in the form of rescheduling the event and is reached before you ever get to a conversation about chargebacks or cancellations. 

Nichole Beiner of Nichole Gabrielle adds, “Being flexible with rescheduling or being creative about how to interact may be appreciated, especially by clients with compromised immune systems or who care for those with compromised immune systems or elderly people.”

So reach out to your booked clients to schedule a check-in and have a conversation. Get a feel for if they have any concerns or are thinking about cancelling (especially if you deliver your services in-person or work in the events industry).

If your clients were thinking about cancelling, getting a call from you to reassure them, might be just what they need to keep their event on the books. 

For example, you could say:

Hey XX,

I hope planning your [insert event name here] has been going smoothly! I wanted to check in and see how you were doing in light of the recent coronavirus outbreak updates. As of right now, the U.S. is in a place of relatively low risk. However, I know how stressful [event name] planning can be, and this certainly doesn’t help!

I wanted to let you know that as of right now our area has had little to no impact from the coronavirus and because of this I have every intention of fulfilling my role at your [event name]. Of course, if anything should change with my plans, you will be the first to know.

If you have any intention of changing or altering the date of your [event name] please let me know as soon as possible so we can work on rescheduling to a date that works for everyone. If you do plan to change the [event name] date, please refer back to our contract for the proper steps.

Thanks,

XX

If your clients weren’t thinking about cancelling at all, tread lightly. You don’t want to give them a reason to worry, but use this as an opportunity to let them know you’re on top of the situation; considering the health and safety of all your clients; and what you’re doing to ensure that. 

For example, you could say:

Hello XX,

I hope your [event name] planning has been going smoothly! I wanted to check in and see how you were doing in light of the recent coronavirus outbreak updates. As of right now, the U.S. is in a place of relatively low risk. However, I know how stressful [event name] planning can be, and this certainly doesn’t help!

I wanted to let you know that as of right now our area has had little to no impact from the coronavirus and because of this I have every intention of fulfilling my role at your [event name]. Of course, if anything should change with my plans, you will be the first to know.

Thanks,

XX

If they inquire about cancelling, be ready with your responses (see step #4).

6. Issue a message to inquiries/clients

Similar to step #5, this step focuses on proactive communication but is a bit more passive, and is designed to reach your broader audience, not just booked clients. Set your audience’s minds at ease and let them know that you’re prepared to handle whatever comes your way. Acknowledge the coronavirus and that it’s something your business is aware of and thinking about. 

You can create a video message that you put up on your website, on social media or in an email. You can create a blog post. Or you can create an FAQ page for your website. 

Wondering what to say? Here’s a swipe copy example:

Hey everyone!

I wanted to take a quick minute to talk about something important. By now, I’m sure you’ve all heard of the coronavirus and its impact worldwide. While at the very least this is distressing, I wanted to assure you that my business and I are prepared. I’m staying updated on the latest information, acting responsibly by avoiding travel to outbreak hotspots, meeting clients/vendors/employees online instead of in person if someone isn’t feeling well, and swapping hugs for a friendly wave. Additionally, I’m making sure that all of my clients know what to expect from me as per contract.

If you are a fellow business owner who would like a resource of best practices *click here/swipe up/link in bio* to read @honeybook’s latest blog post: How to Prepare Your Business For Coronavirus- 18 Steps.

If you are a client and have any concerns about your event and any details pertaining to cancellation and rescheduling practices, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me, or refer to our contract.

Thanks!

7. Know how to enforce retainer payments for cancelled events/projects

Again, the first (and best) line of defense to keep your retainer payments (and avoid cancellations altogether) is to proactively manage your client relationships, maintain open communication and try to reach a solution that works for the both of you before the topic of cancelling comes up. 

But if cancellations do happen, here’s what you should know to keep/receive your retainer payments.

“This really depends on the situation,” Paige says. “But, in most cases so long as the language in your fee section states ‘non-refundable retainer’ you should be able to keep the retainer. If you used the wording ‘deposit’ instead of retainer, under some states it is required to give back deposits if services have not been rendered. Thus, if you have the word ‘deposit,’ it’s likely best to refund the amount. Also, remember that at the end of the day, it’s your livelihood and business on the line if you have a really sticky client who wants their money back and is ready to pursue legal action if you don’t give it back. It’s way easier, more efficient, and more cost effective to give a refund under these circumstances than to go to court and battle whether the retainer/deposit is refundable.”

If you’re worried about retainer chargebacks (a chargeback happens when a client asks their credit card to reverse the money transfer from their account), remember that if a chargeback does happen through HoneyBook, HoneyBook works side-by-side with you to resolve the dispute. Unlike other platforms (like PayPal, for instance), HoneyBook will not automatically refund your client.

Business continuity plan for small business: Things you can do in the next few days/weeks 

8. Plan for backup help 

If you don’t already have one as part of your business continuity plan for small business, create a backup plan in the event that you get sick and are unable to perform your job. Identify and lock in a few people whom you can trust to step in for you if needed. (Need help finding someone? Try reaching out to someone in your community or a fellow creative at your local TuesdaysTogether. See #18 for more detail.) Make sure to add this into your contracts, as you want your clients to be aware of this possibility. And see step #3 for more details about what to include in that clause. 

9. Get video meeting software

With the possibility of people increasing the amount of time they spend at home (known as social distancing), you may want to move more of your in-person meetings to video meetings. Make sure your phone and computer equipment are set up to work for video. In terms of video meeting software, FaceTime is a popular option for iPhone users, but if you need to show your screen, you can also consider Zoom or Google Hangouts. According to The Verge, Google said “that it would be rolling out free access to ‘advanced’ features for Hangouts Meet to all G Suite and G Suite for Education customers globally through July 1st. That means organizations can host meetings with up to 250 participants, live stream to up to 100,000 viewers within a single domain, and record and save meetings to Google Drive.” 

10. Understand your financial position

An important part of business preparedness in the face of coronavirus and creating a business continuity plan for small business is knowing the ins and outs of your finances. This will help you to understand how much business you can afford to lose each month and start making plans if needed. Answer the following questions to start getting a better picture of your finances. 

• What is your projected monthly revenue each month over the next 3-6 months?
• What are your monthly costs (business and living expenses) each month over the next 3-6 months?
• How many projects/events/clients do you need at a minimum each month over the next 3-6 months to maintain a positive cash flow?
• Are any projects/events/clients at risk of getting cancelled or postponed within the next 3-6 months? (If so, see what you can do in steps #4–5.)
• If your projected cash flow is in the negative over the next 3-6 months, see what you can do in steps #11–12.

11. Identify new revenue streams

While you may be a ways away from needing to implement the next two steps, they’re still worth thinking about now to help increase your preparedness. With that in mind, start thinking about other ways you could bring in revenue if business slowed way down or if cancellations went way up. 

Here are a couple ideas:

1. Check HoneyBook Opportunities. Other creatives post opportunities of all kinds, and you can post if you have one as well. Searching by your zip code makes it easy.
2. Get a side gig on platforms like Upwork or Fiverr.
3. Tap into your network and see if anyone needs extra help. Since many events are likely to get rescheduled, take advantage of the shuffle and make yourself available for these dates.
4. Turn your existing service into a digital or remote offering. 

12. Pivot your business strategy

Again, it might not make sense to start pivoting at this very moment, but making plans to do this now can be very helpful if this may be needed in the future. If your business is internationally based, perhaps consider focusing on local markets. Or if your business is focused on servicing large events, consider niching down. Some HoneyBook members have started focusing on more intimate-sized events that are less prone to being impacted by travel restrictions. Another idea is to introduce lightweight services that are easy for you to implement, and that requires less planning ahead, like one-off coaching sessions. 

Don’t forget to think through the impact on your brand and what would need to be updated, including messaging and imagery on your website and social channels. 

Business continuity plan for small business: Things you can do as a general best practice

13. Create a playbook

Documenting your entire process in a playbook will make it easy to hand a project/event off to someone who needs to step in and take over for you in the event that you get sick. Think through every little step and include it! Imagine that you won’t be there to answer questions and that everything they need to know would be included in your documentation. (Need some help? Check out our Ultimate Guide to Boosting Work Efficiency Through Business Systems and Automation.)

The cool thing about managing your business in HoneyBook is that all your client and project information is kept in one place, which makes it easy to hand over projects. Other team members (or an external person added to your project if you don’t have team members and need to add a back-up contact) can jump in and quickly get up to speed. They can see the communication history between you and your client and access all files to see all relevant information. (Team members can see private notes from all client meetings; external people added to your project can see all files and client communications, just not private notes you’ve taken.)

“Take a deep breath and don’t panic if you don’t have any of these best business practices in place,” says Diana Fang from The Finer Points. “If someone cancels, this would be a good time to use that extra time to beef up your own internal systems (especially for points #10-15).”

14. Identify ways to supplement income

It’s always good to know how you can supplement your income if you truly need to. Research the different options available for small business loans (this is a great resource), as well as a withdrawal from your 401K if you have one. But because of the hefty fees associated with an early withdrawal, this should be saved as a last resort.

15. Tap into city resources

Some cities are offering financial aid to specifically help small businesses during this trying time. For example, in New York City, Mayor Bill de Blasio said “the city will offer no-interest loans to small businesses with fewer than 100 employees that could show a 25 percent reduction in sales since the coronavirus outbreak and grants of up to $6,000 for businesses with fewer than five employees.” Check with your city’s Small Business Administration office for more details. 

16. Start saving now

Having an emergency fund to tide you over for 3-6 months is important for a solid business continuity plan for small business. If you don’t have one, start today. Take a look at your financial position from step #10. How much do you need to maintain a positive cash flow each month? Use that as a starting point to set your monthly savings goal. 

Once you’ve set a goal, identify ways to save. Perhaps you allocate a percentage of each paycheck to set aside. Or maybe you aim to save $X amount each month by avoiding indulgent expenses (like that new camera or dinners out) for the time being.

17. Take care of yourself, your family and your team

Follow best practices issued by the CDC/WHO to stay healthy and minimize the spread of the virus, including:

1. Washing hands frequently with soap and water for at least 20 seconds
2. Coughing/sneezing into a flexed elbow
3. Avoiding touching your face with unwashed hands
4. Staying home if you feel unwell 
5. Encouraging team members and vendors to stay home if sick
6. Social distancing (swap a handshake for a friendly wave!)

18. Lean on community 

In a world where toilet-paper runs are a thing and entire towns are getting locked down, don’t forget you’re not alone. The HoneyBook and Rising Tide community are here to help (even if just to lend a commiserating ear about why there’s no hand sanitizer available anywhere). Here are a few ways to get the most out of the community:

1. Join your local TuesdaysTogether. We have chapters around the globe. Connect with other creatives online through your local TuesdaysTogether Facebook and Instagram groups. Building relationships with those in your area can help if you find you need to cancel on a client and need to refer someone you trust (or vice versa). Please note: Some in-person meetings may be postponed out of caution for the health and safety of our members as the coronavirus progresses. Check in with your city to find out details.
2. Check in on one another. Identify a handful of people to follow up with as the situation unfolds. Knowing how coronavirus is impacting others, and knowing people are also checking in with you, can help you feel less isolated.
3. Share your wisdom with the community. Don’t feel like you have to go through this alone; we’re all in this together. Tag @honeybook and/or @risingtidesociety to share your tips and tools for how to best prepare and maintain not only your business but your day-to-day client interactions. 

Disclaimer: The advice featured in this post was sourced from our community members for sharing of general information and knowledge. For specific legal, tax, mental health, and professional advice, please consult an authorized professional.

This article was originally published at honeybook.com

Songhan incubator is one of the first private incubators in Vietnam established in early 2017 in Da Nang City with the vision of supporting and building vibrant start-up ecosystems in Vietnam, incubating early-stage startups and providing important services to the community in Danang and Vietnam.

In the past 3 months, the Covid-19 pandemic has affected many countries, including Vietnam. Government and business communities have worked together tirelessly to control the spread of disease. However, the Covid-19 pandemic has caused significant damage to the economy, especially the tourism industry. This has posed a serious challenge for tourist businesses to develop new solutions to adapt to the changing environment and recover from the crisis.

With a strong sense of responsibility to support the business community and passinate a desire to solve the emerging difficulties faced by tourism businesses, Songhan Incubator has collaborated with the Tourism Department of Da Nang City and PR Newswire International Media Company to co-organize the conference “Smart Tourism: Technology and Solutions post-Covid-19”.

The Organizing Committee hopes that the tourism community will accompany us in the quest to turn challenges into opportunities, discover advanced technological solutions to promptly solve these difficulties and help our tourism economy recover from the crisis. The conference will include discussion on the current situation of the tourism industry – challenges and opportunities, new directions and business models to adapt to the changing environment, and introduction of technological solutions from prestigious corporations and enterprises in Vietnam.

Time: 8:00 | 05/21/2020
Location: Magnolia Hotel – 06 Le Loi, Thach Thang, Hai Chau, Da Nang
Registration link: https://songhan.vn/gpcovid19

@ Vietnam Insider/ PR Newswire

Here’s what you need to know about the coronavirus right now:

The World Health Assembly, the decision-making body of the World Health Organization, starts a two-day virtual annual meeting today, its first since the COVID-19 pandemic started.

Global attention will be focused on calls for a review of the international response to the pandemic, supported by the European Union, and a push for a probe into the coronavirus’ origins, which has been backed by Australia.

The calls have come amid rising criticism of China’s handling of the outbreak by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has said that Beijing should face consequences if it was “knowingly responsible” for the pandemic. The United States has also withdrawn funding for the WHO.

Pop-up carparks

Australia’s most populous state New South Wales was encouraging its residents to avoid peak-hour public transport as it began its first full week of loosened lockdown measures, which saw people heading back to offices.

To aid with maintaining social distancing, extra bicycle lanes and pop-up car parking lots would be made available, officials said.

“We normally encourage people to catch public transport but given the constraints in the peak … we want people to consider different ways to get to work,” state premier Gladys Berejiklian told reporters in Sydney.

Furloughs no cure-all

Temporary unemployment schemes have spread far wider and faster than during the last major shock, the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, but are not likely to save jobs in sectors which face a tougher recovery post-pandemic, such as the leisure and tourism industries.

These schemes, which typically provide at least 80% of pay for workers for whom there is no work now, mean companies do not face firing and potential re-hiring costs. Workers are more inclined to keep spending and less preoccupied by saving, propping up the economy.

“If it’s more than a year, you need other solutions and will need other policies like retraining,” said Gregory Claeys, senior fellow at economic think-tank Bruegel. “It’s good in a lockdown, but if there is more social change, you need alternatives.”

Angling for return

The phones haven’t stopped ringing for Will Barnard, fisheries manager at Thames Water, which runs a 400-acre site for anglers, since fishing was permitted to restart in Britain on May 13.

His team have been working flat out to set up a system that allows anglers to return safely to what, for many of them, is much more than just a hobby.

“Today is just a lovely thing to be able to do just given the current state of everything,” said Patrick Quelch, a 52-year old part-time primary schoolteacher, who rang up two days in advance to claim one of 50 available tickets.

After nearly two months without seeing a hook, the trout are plentiful and easy to catch and within minutes of the first line hitting the water, a distant splash signifies one has taken the bait – the first of more than 800 caught in a single day.

Compiled by Karishma Singh; editing by Richard Pullin @ Reuters

Would you be willing to give up your individual rights for the sake of the common good?

That’s the question that citizens across the world are facing in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic.

But according to experts spanning law, public health and privacy policy, it may be the wrong question to ask. Instead, they say, we should be weighing the specific kinds of information that health officials need to do their jobs, whether there are less intrusive alternatives, and whether there’s evidence that these approaches will work.

Once those questions are answered, we need to forge ahead in a way that preserves our privacy and civil liberties as much as possible, while ensuring that there are safeguards in place. It’s vital, they say, that powers granted to governments during times of crisis do not continue once Covid-19 is over.

“The best way to balance public health with civil liberties is with evidence,” said Lawrence Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown Law. Gostin has extensively researched how to strike a balance between the two camps, including during prior health crises like the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Gostin notes that if there are ways to leverage interventions that are voluntarily or less restrictive, they should be considered.

“It all begins with science but it also requires proportionate responses that are not arbitrary or draconian,” he explained. “And we need to maintain the public’s trust.”

Gostin also shared the criteria that he considers with any new public health intervention that could jeopardize an individual’s rights:

• Is there scientific evidence that an individual poses a significant risk?
• Is the intervention the least restrictive possible to achieve the public health goal?
• Are the measures used likely to gain the public’s support and confidence?
• Does the person have access to due process to challenge the intervention?
• Is the measure arbitrary or discriminatory?

Red flags

The Covid-19 pandemic is barely four months old, but civil liberties groups are already alarmed by how some governments are responding.

At the start of the crisis, Chinese authorities used software to sort citizens into color-coded categories — red, yellow, green — corresponding to their level of risk for having the virus. Those in the green group had the most freedom of movement. Yellow and red meant that citizens could find themselves barred from entry to eateries and shopping malls.

This is the kind of “big data” that experts like Gostin have not encountered before in prior pandemics, and it presents new challenges as well as opportunities.

Ronald Bayer, a professor at the Center for the History and Ethics of Public Health at Columbia University, sees potential in using new technology for public health surveillance to get ahead of an infectious disease outbreak. But he also warns that there may be examples of countries using the threat of a disease as a “pretense” to justify authoritarian impulses to amass power, and that technology can be used as a tool in that process. He also notes that measures introduced during emergencies can’t easily be dismantled.

Consider the September 11th terror attacks, which fundamentally changed airline travel for good. Many will recall how it became a lot more challenging to get through security. Heightened fears also led to the Patriot Act, which gave the federal government vast new investigative powers that it claimed were necessary in the fight against terrorism. A terror attack and a pandemic are vastly different, but both present opportunities for governments and the private sector to take on new powers in the the name of keeping citizens safe.

Violating civil liberties can backfire

Undermining our individual rights might not even help public health in achieving its goals, some experts have noted.

Tools that are overly intrusive to people’s civil liberties can backfire. During the HIV/AIDS epidemic of the 1980s and 1990s, for instance, Bayer argued in his research papers that public health and privacy rights did not need to be in opposition. Because of the stigma surrounding the disease, he explained, “good public health respects civil liberties, and anything that advances human rights and civil liberties would advance public health.”

One of the big issues at the time was the idea of doctors reporting the names of HIV patients to the states. Some states refused to accept name-based reporting so for years because they feared that it would discourage people from getting tested.

Another controversial topic was the effort around so-called contact tracing, which is being proposed as way to fight Covid-19 today. In many cases, public health officials would notify an HIV patient’s past sexual partners that they may have been in contact with somebody who had the disease, but never identified or named them.

“We learned that if you intrude on privacy you will be counter productive in terms of controlling the epidemic,” Bayer recalled. He stressed that officials made decisions they thought were “necessary” for public health, not just those they thought might feasibly slow the spread of the disease.

These lessons remain relevant today.

One present-day example comes from South Korea, which introduced an electronic system that sends out an automatic alert to people living nearby a known Covid-19 case. Reports found that the information includes age, gender, a log of their whereabouts, and in some cases credit card transactions. Sharing that level of detail could help friends and neighbors pinpoint the specific individual with the virus. As such, many medical experts worry that people with symptoms will choose not to get tested because of the potential for stigma in their community.

A South Korean soldier wearing a banner reading “Covid-19 Free” and a protective mask stands at a temperature screening point at Incheon International Airport in Incheon, South Korea, on Monday, March 9, 2020.
SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Consent is key

Modern approaches to contact tracing can be designed to protect privacy.

For instance, Google and Apple are working to develop a system to do that uses a Bluetooth-based approach, which aims to prevent governments or the companies providing the technology from identifying any one person who might be sick. Users must opt-in to participate. Here’s how the Electronic Frontier Foundation, a privacy-focused organization, describes it:

When two users of the app come near each other, both apps estimate the distance between each other using Bluetooth signal strength. If the apps estimate that they are less than approximately six feet (or two meters) apart for a sufficient period of time, the apps exchange identifiers. Each app logs an encounter with the other’s identifier. The users’ location is not necessary, as the application need only know if the users are sufficiently close together to create a risk of infection.

This kind of approach differs vastly from methods that use GPS to track the movements of citizens without their consent. On a technical level, GPS doesn’t work well in buildings, and it has a hard time understanding whether two people are within 20 feet from each other.

But more important, if consumers don’t trust a smartphone-based tracking system, they can simply leave their phone at home. That would render the technology useless.

“Having consent and good processes to grant and withdraw consent is critical,” said Bennett Cyphers, a staff technologist at EFF by phone.

‘Unprecedented times’

Other experts, such as the University of Washington School of Law associate professor Ryan Calo, argue that we can go too far in preserving privacy above all other factors.

Calo looks at Google and Apple’s Bluetooth approach and sees other problems. Because it’s voluntary, that might provide people with a false sense of security if they don’t get an alert. Those who have opted out might be walking around with Covid-19 and infecting others without ever being picked up with the system. Moreover, unless public health officials are involved, there’s potential to “game” the system by falsely claiming a person has the virus when they haven’t tested positive for it. That could lead to other harms, like a business intentionally undermining a rival or a political party suppressing participation.

In Calo’s view, contact tracing could be more effective if it wasn’t voluntary, and closely linked with public health reporting.

That’s where the evidence piece comes in. When considering how to intervene, experts will need to look at all effective solutions, then consider the least intrusive measures first. Sometimes that might require citizens to be required to participate.

As Calo notes, in Washington State, public health officials are required to document their attempts to secure quarantine voluntarily well before they forcibly detain someone. In other words, they take the least intrusive approach first, and escalate only if it doesn’t work.

But some questions are even more difficult, and will need to be figured out during this unprecedented global health crisis.

For instance, Calo has pointed out that Washington Gov. Jay Inslee invoked emergency powers to prohibit gatherings of other 250 people. But what if the governor used that measure to stop a rival’s political rally?

“These unique times may yield new precedents, legal and otherwise,” Calo wrote in a blog post. “Few doubt Covid-19 constitutes a crisis worthy of government response,” he continued. “But to paraphrase Justice Robert H. Jackson in another context, emergency powers have a tendency to kindle emergencies.”

Reporting by Christina Farr @ CNBC

East Asia could do better than other parts of the world as the coronavirus pandemic leaves many major economies virtually frozen, according to David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Mangement.

“I think the overall outlook for East Asia is quite good relative to to other regions of the world … in economic terms and probably in market terms in the second half of 2020,” Kelly told the “Squawk Box” on Thursday.

Global economic activity has plummeted as authorities implement extensive social distancing measures and lockdowns to stem the spread of the disease. But Kelly said places such as South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong have a better chance of “escaping from Covid-19 than Europe and the U.S. does.”

The strategist also said China, where the virus was first reported late last year, is likely to keep reopening its economy as it takes a different approach from the West.

“It may be that while the U.S. and Western countries will shy away from achieving some sort of herd immunity and wait for a vaccine, it could be that China may soldier on with reopening the economy even if there’s some rise in the case load and they will sort of struggle to try and dampen down that growth but not abandon this reopening of the economy,” Kelly said.

Investors have been closely watching data out of China, looking for insight on the magnitude of the disease’s economic impact. The country is set to report its first-quarter GDP on Friday.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect China’s GDP to have fallen 6.5% from last year, a sharp drop from the 6% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019. That would also be the first quarterly decline since 1992, when China began reporting GDP, according to Reuters.

‘Pretty rough road’ ahead for the US

Kelly also said he expects a “big drop” in second-quarter GDP for the United States, which saw a spike in coronavirus cases and shutdowns beginning in March.

“I think first quarter GDP will now be negative in the U.S., but second quarter GDP could be down 20 to 25% in annualized rate,” Kelly said. “A huge decline.”

While daily new cases in the U.S. have stabilized due to an “extraordinary pattern of social distancing,” the strategist was wary about lifting prevention measures soon.

“If you reopen the country to back to where it was before, the virus will take off again,” he said. “It’s still gonna be a pretty rough road for the United States until there’s a vaccine hopefully in the first half of 2021.”

Kelly projected the U.S. economy is likely to see a U-shaped recession of “a big fall, a big stall and then a big surge in 2021.”

Reporting by Eustance Huang. This article originally posted on CNBC