Vietnam Insider presents the Market Watch newsletter dated December 11, 2023, with the latest financial insights:

On Friday, the VN-Index experienced a marginal increase, maintaining an average liquidity level and securing a close above the MA200 milestone at 1,118 points. Despite anticipated challenges in retesting this milestone, there is a 60% probability that the VN-Index will continue its upward trajectory towards the MA100 resistance at 1,155 points.

BCM has seen a boost in liquidity in recent sessions, leading the stock to surpass the MA50 resistance and form a bullish double-bottom pattern. Consider investing in BCM with a short-term target set at 72,500 (MA200) and a stop loss at 63,000.

MVIS has released the structural results for the MVSI MarketVector Vietnam Local Index basket. Notably, CEO will be added to the index basket, with no stocks being removed. These changes will take effect on Monday, December 18, 2023, following their application at the end of the day on Friday, December 15, 2023.

Fitch Ratings has upgraded Vietnam’s credit rating from BB to BB+ with a stable outlook, reflecting the country’s positive medium-term growth prospects. Fitch forecasts a 7% GDP growth in the medium term, driven by substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows.

Derivatives Trading Strategy:

1. Comment:
The F2312 contract hovered around the resistance at 1,115 points, fluctuating within the range of 1,109-1,119 points. There is a prediction that F2312 might retest the 1,109 point mark before experiencing an upward movement. If it surpasses the 1,119 barrier, this contract could potentially reach the 1,125-1,135 range.

2. Strategy:
– Buy at 1,109 points
– Target (TP): 1,119 points
– Stop loss (SL) at 1,107 points.

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Source: Vietnam Insider

Foreign Exchange Market:

During the trading session on November 21st, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) listed the central exchange rate at 23,915 VND/USD, a decrease of 39 dong compared to the previous session. The immediate purchase rate remained at 23,400 VND/USD, while the immediate selling rate was listed at 25,060 VND/USD, a decrease of 50 dong compared to the ceiling exchange rate. In the Interbank market (IB), the closing rate dropped by an additional 45 dong to 24,135 VND/USD. Meanwhile, the free market rate slightly decreased on the buying side and remained unchanged on the selling side, trading at 24,560 VND/USD and 24,650 VND/USD respectively.

Interbank Currency Market:

On November 21st, the average bidding interest rate for Vietnamese Interbank Market (VNIB) VND decreased by 0.06 percentage points in the 1-month term and remained stable in shorter terms. The average bidding interest rate for VNIB USD slightly increased across all terms. Government Bond yields decreased in most terms, closing at: 3Y 1.70%; 5Y 1.60%; 7Y 2.15%; 10Y 2.48%; 15Y 2.70%.

Open Market Operations:

In recent trading sessions, the SBV auctioned 1,000 billion VND on the collateral channel for a 7-day term, maintaining the interest rate at 4.0%. There was no winning bid volume, and no SBV bonds were tendered. On November 21st, there were 850 billion VND of maturing SBV bonds, reducing the total supply to 95,599.8 billion VND.

Stock Market:

The Vietnam stock market saw a slight increase in recent trading sessions. The VN-Index increased by 6.8 points (+0.62%) to 1,110.46 points; the HNX-Index added 2.03 points (+0.89%) reaching 229.80 points; the UPCoM-Index rose slightly by 0.09 points (+0.10%) to 86.22 points. Market liquidity remained low, with a trading value of nearly 17,185 billion VND. Foreign investors continued to net buy with a value of 481 billion VND across all three exchanges.

International News:

The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains a “cautious” monetary policy stance. FOMC officials continue to be concerned about persistent inflation. In the U.S. real estate market, existing home sales declined slightly in October but were up by 4.1% compared to the same period last year. Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), highlighted inflation risks and warned about potential interest rate hikes.

Exchange Rates on November 21st:

USD = 0.917 EUR (-0.27% d/d)
USD = 0.798 GBP (-0.26% d/d)
GBP = 1.149 EUR (+0.53% d/d)

Business and Privatization Information:

In the first 10 months of 2023, no new privatized enterprises emerged. In October, there were no divestments. Specifically, the state divested from 4 enterprises worth 8.8 billion VND, realizing 19 billion VND. Up to October 2023, 49 enterprises have been authorized for restructuring under the government’s project.

International Financial Market Information:

The Fed’s October 31st – November 1st meeting minutes showed concerns about inflation and a decision to maintain a “cautious” monetary policy. The Bank of England Governor warned about inflation risks and the possibility of raising interest rates.

Existing home sales in the U.S. decreased slightly in October but remained higher compared to the same period last year.
Bank of England Governor emphasized inflation risks and warned about potential interest rate hikes.

Related

Source: Vietnam Insider

The Vietnamese stock market experienced a significant decline in the VN-Index during the last session of the previous week, as selling pressure intensified from the resistance zone of MA50 at 1,135 points.

The VN-Index closed below the MA200 line at 1,115 points, returning to the declining market area, with the nearest support level at 1,080-1.085 points along the MA20 line.

Selling pressure surged suddenly in the afternoon session, causing the VN-Index to drop by 2.16%, and the trading volume on the HOSE exchange reached 1.26 billion shares (+82.7%). Despite efforts to rise in the high-price range during the morning session, buying power gradually weakened. Throughout the week, the VN-Index saw a slight decrease of 0.04% compared to the previous week.

All 30 stocks in the VN30 basket closed in the red, led by VCB, VIC, VHM, VPB, BID, HPG. Some low-capitalization stocks, especially in the Real Estate and Infrastructure sectors, still maintained positive performance. However, many other stocks in sectors such as Securities, Fertilizers, and Aquaculture witnessed strong selling pressure. Both VNMidcap and VNSmallcap decreased by 1.55% and 0.55%, respectively.

The HNX-Index decreased by 1.32%, with 106 red stocks on the HNX exchange, including CEO, HUT, L14, SHS, PVS, TNG. Foreign investors increased net selling, primarily in stocks such as VHM, STB, MWG, VCB, VPB, VRE, VIC.

Derivatives Trading Strategy:

1. Market Analysis:
– Contract F2312 showed a decreasing trend with significant fluctuations around the support level of 1,100 points.
– It is predicted that F2312 may retest this support level and continue the downward trend.

2. Trading Strategy:
– Sell when breaking the support at 1,100 points.
– Target Price (TP): 1,082 points.
– Stop Loss (SL) at 1,105 points.

Related

Source: Vietnam Insider

**Foreign Exchange Market:**

On the foreign exchange market, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) listed the central exchange rate at 24,020 VND/USD on November 14, an increase of 5 dong compared to the beginning of the week. The spot buying rate remained stable at 23,400 VND/USD, while the spot selling rate was listed at 25,171 VND/USD, 50 dong lower than the rate ceiling. In the Interbank Market (IBM), the closing exchange rate was 24,360 VND/USD, down 19 dong from November 13. The free market exchange rate increased by 20 dong in both buying and selling directions, trading at 24,620 VND/USD and 24,720 VND/USD.

**Interbank Money Market (IBM):**

On November 14, the average offered interest rate for VND in the IBM decreased significantly, ranging from 0.18 to 0.23 for terms of 1M and below compared to the beginning of the week. The average offered interest rate for USD in the IBM decreased by 0.01 to 0.02 for most terms, except for the 1M term. Rates stood at 5.04% (ON), 5.14% (1W), 5.25% (2W), and 5.35% (1M), maintaining stability. Government Bond (TPCP) yields remained unchanged for 3Y and 15Y terms, while decreasing for other terms.

**Open Market Operations:**

In the recent trading session, the SBV auctioned 1,000 billion VND with a term of 7 days and an interest rate of 4.0% on the collateral channel, but there was no winning bid. There was no outstanding amount on this channel. The SBV did not bid for SBV bonds. On November 14, 17,950 billion VND matured. Consequently, the SBV injected a net amount of 17,950 billion VND into the market, reducing the total outstanding bonds in the market to 115,249.8 billion VND.

**Stock Market:**

The latest stock market session witnessed a return of capital flow. The VN-Index increased by 9.66 points (+0.88%) to 1,109.73 points, the HNX-Index added 1.32 points (+0.58%) to reach 227.43 points, and the UPCoM-Index inched up by 0.67 points (+0.78%) to 86.65 points. Market liquidity improved with a trading value of nearly 19,000 billion VND. Foreign investors continued to be net sellers with over 357 billion VND across all three exchanges.

**Domestic News:**

According to the Ministry of Finance, government revenue in the first 10 months reached 1,398.7 trillion VND, a 9.2% decrease compared to the same period in 2022, equivalent to 86.3% of the estimate. Of this, domestic tax revenue reached approximately 88.9% of the estimate, and revenue from state-owned enterprises reached about 83.3% of the estimate. Domestic revenue decreased by 5.9%, revenue from crude oil decreased by 19.8%, and the balanced budget from export-import activities decreased by 21.9%. Regarding government expenditures, in the first 10 months, they reached 1,357.6 trillion VND, equivalent to 65.4% of the estimate, an 11.4% increase compared to the same period in 2022.

**International News:**

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States remained unchanged in October, with increases of 3.2% and 4.0% year-on-year for the overall CPI and core CPI, respectively.
• The UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported an increase in unemployment benefit claims and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2% in September.
• The National Australia Bank (NAB) survey revealed a slight decrease in business confidence, dropping from 0 to -2 points in October.

**Exchange Rates on November 14:**
– USD = 0.919 EUR (-1.70% d/d); EUR = 1.088 USD (1.70% d/d)
– USD = 0.80 GBP (-1.78% d/d); GBP = 1.250 USD (1.78% d/d)
– GBP = 1.149 EUR (0.08% d/d); EUR = 0.871 GBP (-0.08% d/d)

Related

Source: Vietnam Insider

The Center for Economic Research – Vietnam Maritime Commercial Joint Stock Bank (Maritime Bank) is pleased to introduce to you the Economic and Financial Newsletter for September 7, 2023.

NHNN Central Exchange Rate Increases to 23,991 VND/USD

In the trading session on September 6th, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) listed the central exchange rate at 23,991 VND/USD, marking an increase of 32 dong compared to the previous session. The spot buying rate remained unchanged at 23,400 VND/USD, while the spot selling rate was listed at 25,140 VND/USD, which is 50 dong lower than the ceiling exchange rate. On the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM), the closing exchange rate settled at 24,046 VND/USD, decreasing by an additional 09 dong compared to the trading session on September 5th. The free market exchange rate decreased by 20 dong on both the buying and selling sides, trading at 24,100 VND/USD and 24,180 VND/USD, respectively.

Currency Market in the Interbank Market: Mild Fluctuations in Average Interest Rates

On September 6th, the average interest rates in the Vietnamese Interbank Market (VND) decreased by 0.01 to 0.02 percentage points (ppt) for the ON (overnight) and 2W (2-week) terms, while they remained unchanged for the 1W (1-week) and 1M (1-month) terms compared to the previous session. Specifically, the average interest rates for various terms were as follows: ON 0.20%, 1W 0.42%, 2W 0.58%, and 1M 1.42%. Meanwhile, the average interest rates in the Interbank Market for USD increased by 0.01 to 0.02 ppt for the short terms, with rates at ON 5.06%, 1W 5.18%, 2W 5.26%, and 1M 5.36%. Government bond yields in the secondary market remained unchanged for the 3Y (3-year) term but increased for the other terms, with rates at 3Y 1.72%, 5Y 1.83%, 7Y 2.27%, 10Y 2.58%, and 15Y 2.78%.

Open Market Operations: SBV Maintains Bid Interest Rate

In recent trading sessions on the collateral channel, SBV continued to maintain the bid interest rate at 4.0% with a 7-day term, and there were no successful bids. There was no outstanding amount on the collateral channel, and SBV continued not to bid for treasury bills.

Bond Market: SBV Successfully Raises Funds for the 5-Year Term

In the trading session on September 6th, the State Treasury successfully raised 3,935 billion VND of government bonds, reaching 98% of the 4,000 billion VND offer. Specifically, the entire 500 billion VND for the 5-year term was successfully raised, and the 10-year and 15-year terms both raised the entire 1,500 billion VND for each term, while the 30-year term raised 435 billion VND out of the total offer of 500 billion VND. The winning bid interest rates for the respective terms were 5Y 1.69% (-0.05 ppt), 10Y 2.36% (unchanged), 15Y 2.59% (unchanged), and 30Y 3.05% (unchanged).

Stock Market: VN-Index Shows Strong Growth

The stock market continued to show positive developments in recent trading sessions. At the close of the session, the VN-Index gained an additional 10.52 points (+0.85%) to reach 1,245.50 points, while the HNX-Index increased by 3.08 points (+1.22%) to reach 255.36 points, and the UpCOM-Index added 0.27 points (+0.29%) to reach 94.56 points. Market liquidity improved with a trading value of over 28,500 billion VND. Foreign investors were net sellers with a value of approximately 67 billion VND across all three exchanges.

International News

U.S. Service Sector PMI Reaches Highest Level Since February 2023

According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the U.S. service sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached 54.5% in August, rising from July’s 52.7% and surpassing the forecasted 52.5%. This marks the highest service sector PMI in the U.S. since February 2023.

Eurozone Retail Sales Show Slight Decline in July

Eurozone retail sales experienced a slight decline of 0.2% compared to the previous month in July, following a 0.2% increase in the previous month, closely matching the forecasted 0.1% decrease. Year-on-year, retail sales in the Eurozone still showed a 1.0% decline. Meanwhile, the EU region recorded a 0.3% decline compared to the previous month and a 1.2% decline year-on-year in July.

Steady Growth in Australia’s GDP in Q2

The Australian Bureau of Statistics announced that Australia’s GDP increased by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter in Q2, which is consistent with the growth rate in the previous quarter (Q1 GDP was revised from 0.2% to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter), and aligns with experts’ forecasts. Year-on-year, Australia’s GDP grew by 2.1%.

Related

Source: Vietnam Insider

VN-Index gained points with improved liquidity yesterday, marking the 5th consecutive rising session. The index is expected to retest the recent peak in the range of 1,240-1,245 points.

This resistance level could trigger profit-taking and create fluctuations or even corrections for the VN-Index, with support at the EMA5 at 1,220 points. In a more positive scenario, if the VN-Index surpasses the 1,245-point mark, the index’s upward momentum will be reinforced with the next resistance at 1,280-1,285 points.

MSB of Vietnam Maritime Bank was the strongest gainer, closing at VND 14,900 per share, up 6.4%. This stock even hit the daily trading limit at VND 14,950 per share during the session. MSB’s trading volume also surged with over 24 million shares matched, worth more than VND 350 billion, which is over three times higher than the previous session.

L14 increased in value with strong liquidity yesterday, closing at its highest level in two weeks and above the EMA200 resistance at 56,500. This signals a price increase for L14. Consider buying L14 with a short-term target at 68,500 (the peak in December 2022) and a stop-loss threshold at 56,500.

While domestic investor funds continue to flow into the market, foreign investors are showing greater caution as they have been net sellers of nearly VND 3,000 billion throughout August, marking their 5th consecutive month of selling in the Vietnamese market. Specifically, foreign investors sold a net amount of VND 2,548 billion on HOSE, VND 23 billion on HNX, and VND 413 billion on UPCOM in August.

Related

Source: Vietnam Insider