As Lunar New Year 2022—the year of the tiger—begins, the largest economic trading pact you likely most never heard of went into effect. The Regional Comprehensive and Economic Partnership or RCEP is a Southeast Asia-inspired and China-lead 15-nation mega free trade deal.

Will it be a catalyst for Asia’s economic tigers and for what economists have been predicting as Asia’s global economic growth engine? What does RCEP mean for the geopolitical struggle for supremacy between the United States and China?

RCEP: a primer

Conceived in Southeast Asia decades ago, RCEP includes ASEAN, the 10 members comprising the Association of Southeast Asian nations; East Asia; China, South Korea, and Japan; and Australia and New Zealand. RCEP is concerned more with the policies regarding manufacturing, cross-border trade, and rules of origin. Essentially, trade barriers between countries will be removed and 90% of tariffs will be eliminated over ten years, spurring regional trade, investment, and economic growth.

Asia on the rise

There doesn’t seem to be any lack of literature making the case that the 21st century belongs to Asia. In fact, world renown commodities trader, Jim Rogers, is famous for having said, “If you were smart in 1807, you moved to London. If you were smart in 1907, you moved to America. And if you were smart in 2007, you moved to Asia.” In this context, Rogers relocated his wife and two girls to Singapore because he strongly believes that learning Mandarin and having his children exposed to Asia would be advantageous for their future. Moreover, in Parag Khanna’s seminal book, The Future is Asian: Commerce, Culture, and Conflict in the 21st century (2019) argues that though China is one reason for Asia’s dramatic rise, the emergence of South, West (The Middle East), and Southeast Asia’s continued growth and development are the real underlying story behind the Asian century. Finally, emerging markets expert, Ruchir Sharma, in an October 2020 New York Times opinion piece titled, “Is Vietnam the next Asian miracle?,” makes the case that this fast-emerging Southeast darling—closely following the ‘miracle tiger’ economies of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan before it—is on the road to economic success. Two decades into the 21st century and Asia seems to be living up to its high expectations.

Conclusion—China in the driver’s seat

While RCEP’s January inception has been low key—it may take up to 10 years before consumers will see any significant changes—the world’s largest trade deal is another reason, to borrow Parag Khanna’s words, the future is Asian. The China-lead trade deal allows it to be at the forefront of global trade, bringing fast growing economies such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam closer into its orbit, all the while the US is absent. While the US once did have a seat at the table in Asia vis a vis the Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP (currently CPTPP), America shot itself in the foot as then newly elected President Donald Trump scrapped TPP his first day in office in 2017. For the time being it seems Asia’s tiger economies will continue to roar well into the 21st century, and China is happy to be leading the charge.

Contributed by Vinh Ho.

Vinh Ho has been based in Ho Chi Minh City since 2019 and runs a blog called Focus Asia-Pacific. Opinions expressed by contributors are their own.

Thailand is to ease its novel coronavirus procedures to allow more patients from abroad to get treatment from next month, a top health official said on Thursday, after appeals from hospitals eager to treat their overseas patients.

Thailand is a major hub for medical tourism, drawing patients from Asia, the Middle East and beyond. In 2019, it recorded 632,000 overseas patients who spent 122 billion baht ($3.9 billion), according to government data. Reuters reported.

But restrictions to fight the coronavirus have seen most foreign patients, along with most foreigners in general, kept out since April.

While there is no formal ban on foreign patients – except on anyone seeking treatment for COVID-19 and ailments that would draw on resources to manage the outbreak – they need approval for travel, which can be slow and difficult to get.

Only 172 foreign patients have been allowed in since a first easing of requirements in July, senior health official Tares Krassanairawiwong told Reuters, adding that 740 people had made official requests for entry.

But now more health facilities would be allowed to accept foreigners again, and more are expected to come.

“In phase two, another 100 hospitals and clinics will be approved to receive patients, from 120 today,” Tares said.

But hospital operators say the process has been slow and they have hundreds of overseas patients needing their treatment, some urgently.

“Four of our patients have died because they couldn’t get in,” the chairman of hospital operator Thonburi Healthcare Group Pcl, Boon Vasin, told Reuters.

“It’s a humanitarian issue because some countries don’t have the capacity for advanced procedures,” he said, citing patients needing treatment for heart disease, diabetes and cancer.

Boon said approvals were inconsistent and he urged authorities to clarify and relax the process.

According to Reuters, Thailand has had 3,404 confirmed coronavirus infections and 58 deaths and has gone more than three months without a case of domestic transmission.

Tares, who heads the Department of Health Services Support, said the procedures had to ensure safety but he expected the approval process to be faster.

He said he also expected people would be allowed to cross land borders from neighbouring Myanmar and Cambodia, major sources of patients.

($1 = 31.2100 baht)

Reporting by Chayut Setboonsarng; Editing by Robert Birsel

The country’s government says it could welcome visitors from certain ‘safe regions’ as early as July

As a great deal of the world comes out of lockdown, many countries are going all-out as they look to reboot their tourist economies. Portugal and Jamaica, for example, are already welcoming visitors from nations across the globe.

Others are taking a markedly more cautious approach. Vietnam has grounded all international flights into the country since March, as part of a strict, early lockdown which has resulted in precisely zero deaths from the virus. And now, as it gradually eases its restrictions, the country’s government has said it is preparing to restart flight routes to a handful of less affected regions – but only if they don’t report any new cases for 30 straight days.

In a statement posted online yesterday, the Vietnamese authorities said: ‘Regarding the reopening of international flights, ministries will first select some locations to open soon, such as Guangzhou, Taiwan, Seoul, Tokyo and Laos, depending on the general situation.’

Although the government did not give any specific dates, aviation industry insiders told Nikkei Asia Review that flights to and from designated ‘safe zones’ would be allowed to restart from July. The government has asked the country’s national steering committee to draw up a list of regions with dwindling infection rates.

One Vietnamese travel agent told Nikkei they were expecting to sell flights for Seoul and Busan from Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City starting July 1, and for Hong Kong soon afterwards.

That’s great news for residents of China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Laos. If you live anywhere else in the world, however, it will likely be a while before you can jet off to that dreamy Vietnamese archipelago you’ve been eyeing up since… pretty much forever. See you there in 2021?

• Hundreds of people have been fined for causing “unnecessary panic” or undermining the “national unifying cause” through their social media posts, Global Voices reports.

The big picture: Like China, Vietnam has since the late 1980s paired political repression with economic liberalization.

The pandemic has punctured most other formerly fast-growing economies in the developing world, but not Vietnam’s.

• Vietnam has had some luck, says Jacques Morisset, the World Bank’s Program Leader for Vietnam. Demand for its chief commodity export, rice, has only grown during the pandemic.
• The government also started from a strong position — in sound fiscal health and with emergency funds ready to be tapped.
• When the pandemic struck, it acted “with a combination of foresight and pragmatism” and “no sense of panic,” says Morriset.

Where things stand: Vietnam’s economy is benefiting on at least two fronts: it was one of the first in the world to re-open with few restrictions, and it was already enjoying a flood of investment as companies like Apple shifted manufacturing to hedge against over-reliance on China.

• Vietnam is also expediting some major infrastructure projects as part of its coronavirus stimulus, the FT reports.
• One sector that has been hit is tourism, which accounts for 9% of GDP. The government plans to resume flights soon, but only for countries that have had no new cases for 30 days.

The bottom line: This pandemic’s success stories include authoritarian states like Vietnam as well as democracies like Australia, Germany and South Korea.

They’re aligned not by style of governance but early, competent action — and a bit of luck.

The U.S President Donald Trump on Friday announced he would begin taking steps to revoke Hong Kong’s favored trade status with the United States, in response to a controversial new security law passed by China’s parliament that would effectively bar political protest in Hong Kong.

“I am directing my administration to begin the process of eliminating policy exemptions that give Hong Kong different and special treatment,” Trump said during a Rose Garden event at the White House.

“My announcement today will affect the full range of agreements that we have with Hong Kong, from our extradition treaty, to our export controls and technologies,” Trump said. “We will take action to revoke Hong Kong’s preferential treatment as a separate customs and travel territory from the rest of China.”

The shift in Hong Kong’s status immediately jeopardizes several aspects of the former British colony’s relationship with the United States, which has so far meant that Hong Kong has been spared punishing tariffs that are a hallmark of Trump’s trade war with Beijing.

But Trump did not provide details about precisely which steps would be taken or in what order, and a White House spokesman declined to comment when CNBC asked for additional clarification on the expected moves.

Trump also said he was ready to take action to mandate that Chinese and other foreign companies listed on U.S. financial exchanges abide by American accounting and audit standards.

The issue has long been a source of frustration among Washington policymakers, several of whom have introduced legislation that would bar trading in any shares where the company’s auditor hasn’t faced an inspection from the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board for three consecutive years. 

Trump has not said whether he will sign the bill, which is currently making its way through Congress.

But the president did say Friday that he would instruct his “presidential working group on financial markets to study the different practices of Chinese companies listed on the U.S. financial markets, with a goal of protecting American investors.” 

“Investment firms should not be subjecting their clients to the hidden and undue risks associated with financing Chinese companies that do not play by the same rules,” said Trump, adding that “Americans are entitled to fairness and transparency.”

A White House spokesman did not immediately respond to a question from CNBC about whether Trump would sign the legislation if it gets to his desk.

During the same address, Trump also announced that the United States would be terminating its relationship with the World Health Organization, a move likely to draw criticism from public health experts and U.S. allies.

The president said the organization had failed to make “the requested and greatly needed reforms,” and he blamed the global health group for a lack of “transparency.”  

Trump did not take any questions from reporters after he finished speaking.

Financial markets reacted positively to Trump’s announcement, reflecting overall relief that he did not announce some of the more drastic and punitive measures that analysts and investors had feared he might. These included additional tariffs on Chinese products, broad sanctions and a withdrawal from the U.S.-China trade deal. 

For weeks, the Trump administration has been ratcheting up pressure on Beijing over its alleged cover-up of early coronavirus cases. Trump has publicly blamed China for the virus itself and for its outsized severity in the United States.

Beijing, in turn, has suggested the virus originated in U.S. service members, a claim widely rejected by international health experts. 

In the past week, however, the pressure from the United States has taken a more serious turn in response to a proposed Chinese security law that threatens the long-standing semi-autonomy of Hong Kong. The law, formally approved Thursday by China’s People’s Congress, is expected to criminalize most forms of political protest under blanket bans on “sedition” and “subversion.”  

On Wednesday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered a report to Congress declaring that Hong Kong was no longer autonomous from China. 

“No reasonable person can assert today that Hong Kong maintains a high degree of autonomy from China, given facts on the ground,” Pompeo said in a statement accompanying the report. 

Even as relations have grown more hostile, Trump has been reluctant to take action on China that could tip the strained bilateral relationship into an outright confrontation.

As president, Trump is acutely aware of the United States’ interdependence with China as a market for American exports and a supplier of manufactured goods. He also still believes that his “phase one” trade deal, signed in January, can and will be seen as one of the high points of his presidency, fulfilling a key campaign promise he made in 2016. 

Likewise, since the coronavirus arrived in the U.S., Trump has shown little appetite for signing any legislation he thinks could hinder the economic recovery. 

@ CNBC

Extension to visa rights promised if Beijing does not row back on national security law.

The UK government has opened a path to citizenship for more than 300,000 Hong Kong residents in a bold riposte to China’s security crackdown on its former colony.

Dominic Raab, foreign secretary, has pledged to extend visa rights for British National (Overseas) passport holders and facilitate their path to British citizenship unless Beijing rows back from plans to impose national security laws on Hong Kong.

The offer is a striking move from a government that is committed to restricting immigration and shut the door to free entry to the UK for EU citizens after voting through its Brexit deal last year.

It came after China formally approved a plan to impose national security legislation on Hong Kong, following increasing frustration in Beijing at the city’s failure to clamp down on pro-democracy protests. It will mark the first time the country has introduced a law that imposes criminal penalties into Hong Kong’s legal code, bypassing the city’s legislature.

About 315,000 people hold valid BNO passports, a document issued to Hong Kong residents born before the handover of the territory from UK to Chinese sovereignty in 1997.

Those residents who registered for BNO status before the handover have the right to consular assistance but they are not British citizens and only have the right to come to the UK for six months.

Speaking on Thursday, Mr Raab announced this period would be extended to 12 months and “provide a pathway to future citizenship”. UK government officials said it was “the right thing to do”.

Mr Raab said: “If China continues down this path and implements this national security legislation, we will . . . allow those BNO passport holders to come to the UK and to apply to work and study for extendable periods of 12 months and that would itself provide a pathway to future citizenship.”

Some called for him to grant automatic citizenship to the BNOs. Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the Commons foreign affairs select committee, welcomed the pledge and called for the government “to go further and recognise the full rights of British nationals”. 

The governments of the US, UK, Australia and Canada released a rare joint statement on Thursday condemning Beijing’s latest move, saying it would undermine the “one country, two systems” framework put in place after the 1997 handover.

That framework laid out how Britain would end its century-and-a-half long rule over Hong Kong when its lease terminated and has guaranteed the territory a level of autonomy.

The agreement also ensured that Hong Kong enjoyed rights not seen on the Chinese mainland.

In 1972, a previous Conservative government made a similar gesture when it accepted more than 28,000 Ugandan Asians with British passports after they were banished by the Ugandan President Idi Amin — less than a tenth of the number of Hong Kong residents who would qualify under the new proposals.

A Downing Street spokesman said: “We are deeply concerned about China’s legislation related to national security in Hong Kong. We have been very clear that the security legislation risks undermining the principle of one country, two systems.

“We are in close contact with our international partners on this and the foreign secretary spoke to US secretary [of state Mike] Pompeo last night.”

The spokesman added: “The steps taken by the Chinese government place the Joint Declaration under direct threat and do undermine Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy.”

@ Financial Times

Singapore-based fintech startup GoBear has raised $17 million from returning investors Walvis Participaties, a Dutch venture capital firm, and Aegon N.V., a life insurance and asset management provider.

The funding brings GoBear’s total funding so far to $97 million, and will be used to expand its consumer financial services platform, which is available in seven Asian markets: Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Founder and CEO Adrian Chng told TechCrunch that GoBear will focus on what it calls its “three growth pillars”: an online financial supermarket that evolved from the company’s financial products aggregator/comparison service; an online insurance brokerage; and its digital lending business, which it recently expanded by acquiring consumer lending platform AsiaKredit.

The company has also added three new executives over the past few months: chief information technology officer Valeriy Gasratov; chief strategy officer Jinnee Lim as Chief Strategy Officer; and Mike Singh from AsiaKredit as its new chief lending officer.

GoBear originally launched in 2015 as a metasearch engine, before transitioning into financial services. The company now works with over 100 financial partners, including banks and insurance providers, and says its platform has been used by over 55 million people to search for more than 2,000 personal financial products.

The startup serves consumers who don’t have credit cards or other access to traditional credit building tools. Similar to other fintech companies that focus on underbanked populations, GoBear aggregates and analyzes alternative sources of data to judge lending risk, including patterns in consumer behavior. For example, Chng said if a loan application is filled out in less than a minute, it is more likely to be fraudulent, and applications made between 8:30PM and midnight are less risky than ones made between 2AM to 5AM.

Data points from smartphones is also used to assess creditworthiness in markets like the Philippines, where the credit card penetration rate is less than 10%, but more than 40% of the population uses a smartphone.

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, Chng said GoBear has been gross margin positive since the end of 2019. Interest in travel insurance has declined, but the company has continued to see demand for other insurance products and lending. Its online insurance brokerage has grown its average order by 52% over the last three months, and the company has seen 50% year-over-year growth from its loan products.

There are other fintech companies in Asia that overlap with some of the services that GoBear offers, like comparison platform MoneySmart, CompareAsiaGroup and Grab Financial Group. In terms of competition, Chng told TechCrunch that not only is the market opportunity in Asia huge (he said there are 300 million underbanked people across GoBear’s seven markets), but the company also differentiates with its three core services, which are all interconnected and draw on the same data sources to score credit.

Chng anticipates that the pandemic will spur more financial institutions to begin digitizing their products and looking for partners like GoBear to help them manage risk. In turn, that will make more financial institutions open to using non-traditional data to score credit, enabling underbanked markets to have increased access to financial products.

“The momentum is here. I think now is the time for tech and data to transform financial services,” he said. “As a platform, we are really looking for partners to come with us for the next phase of growth and investment. I feel positive even with COVID-19, because I think that we will have more acceleration, and the opportunity to change people’s lives and benefit them and investors by solving tough problems will only increase.”

By Catherine Shu @ Techcrunch

Stop debating Beijing’s intentions and take Xi Jinping both seriously and literally.

Can we pay the Chinese Communist Party the compliment of acknowledging that it means what it says and knows what it wants? That may be the key to understanding Beijing’s strategic ambitions in the coming decades.

A long-standing trope in the U.S. debate on that subject is that China itself doesn’t know what it seeks to achieve, that its leaders haven’t yet worked out how far Beijing’s influence should reach. Yet there is a growing body of evidence, assembled and interpreted by talented China experts, that the Chinese government is indeed aiming for global power and perhaps global primacy over the next generation — that it seeks to upend the American-led international system and create at least a competing, quasi-world order of its own.

It doesn’t take unparalleled powers of deduction to reach this conclusion. Top Chinese officials and members of the country’s foreign policy community are becoming increasingly explicit in saying so themselves.

President Xi Jinping more than hinted at this goal in his landmark address to the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. That speech represents one of the most authoritative statements of the party’s policy and aims; it reflects Xi’s understanding of what China has accomplished under Communist rule and how it must advance in the future.

Xi declared that China “has stood up, grown rich, and is becoming strong,” and that it was now “blazing a new trail for other developing countries” and offering “Chinese wisdom and a Chinese approach to solving the problems facing mankind.” By 2049, Xi promised, China would “become a global leader in terms of composite national strength and international influence” and would build a “stable international order” in which China’s “national rejuvenation” could be fully achieved.

This was the statement of a leader who sees his country not just participating in global affairs but setting the terms, and it testifies to two core themes in China’s foreign policy discourse.

The first is a deeply skeptical view of the existing international system. Chinese leaders recognize that the global trade regime has been indispensable to the country’s economic and military rise. Yet when they look at the key features of the world Washington and its allies have made, they see mostly threats.

In their view, American alliances do not preserve peace and stability; they stunt China’s potential and prevent Asian nations from giving Beijing its due. Seen through that lens, promoting democracy and human rights is neither moral nor benign, but propaganda supporting a dangerous doctrine that threatens to delegitimize the Communist government and energize its domestic enemies. U.S.-led international institutions appear as tools for imposing America’s will on weaker states. The Communist Party recognizes that the liberal international order has brought benefits, writes Nadege Rolland, a senior fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, but “the party abhors and dreads” the principles on which it is based.

The second theme is that the international order must change — not a little, but a lot — for China to become fully prosperous and secure. Chinese leaders have, understandably, been somewhat opaque in describing the world they want, but the outlines are becoming easier to discern.

If one studies the statements of Xi and other top officials, China expert Liza Tobin concludes, what emerges is a vision in which “a global network of partnerships centered on China would replace the U.S. system of treaty alliances” and the world would view Chinese authoritarianism as preferable to Western democracy.

Based on a similar analysis, Rolland agrees that China has “a yearning for partial hegemony,” a loose dominance over large swaths of the global south. When it comes to global governance, still other examinations show, Beijing wants a system in which international institutions buttress rather than batter repressive regimes. Meanwhile, Chinese strategists and academics are talking openly about building a “new China-centric global economic order.”

There is little indication, in any of this, that Beijing’s strategic horizon is limited to the Western Pacific or even Asia. Xi’s invocation of a “community with a shared future for humanity” indicates a global tableau for Chinese influence. One hardly has to read between the lines to understand that this agenda will require fundamentally resetting the current geopolitical balance. As Xi remarked several years ago, China must work resolutely toward “a future where we will win the initiative and have the dominant position.”

Of course, there’s not need to take literally everything national leaders say, or even everything that makes it into official speeches. In Beijing’s case, however, Chinese leaders are actually saying less than what the country is doing.

Whether it is the naval shipbuilding program that is churning out vessels at astonishing rate; the drive to control existing international organizations and build new ones; the projection of military power in the Arctic, the Indian Ocean and points beyond; the quest to dominate the world’s high-tech industries; the ever-more systematic efforts to support authoritarian regimes and weaken democratic institutions; or the Belt and Road Initiative that encompasses multiple continents, China is hardly acting like a country that lacks a grand geopolitical design.

As with so many aspects of the U.S.-China competition, there is a Cold War parallel. During the 1970s, some leading American Sovietologists insisted that Moscow was becoming a satisfied, status quo power. Yet that claim required ignoring what Soviet leaders said about detente and peaceful coexistence — that it was a way of ensuring the triumph of socialism without war — as well as their efforts to build military superiority and positions of strength in the Third World. The warning signs were evident then, as they are today.

China probably doesn’t have a step-by-step checklist for achieving global primacy, any more than the Soviet Union did in the 1970s. Chinese leaders aren’t insensitive to costs and obstacles: Xi may ritualistically restate the importance of unifying the Chinese nation, but that doesn’t mean he’s hell-bent on war over Taiwan.

Beijing may not even have decided which of its two paths to global influence is preferable: Establishing dominance in the Western Pacific and then expanding outward from there, or outflanking the U.S. position in the region by building up economic and political power around the world. Finally, China may ultimately fail to accomplish any of this. Perhaps the coronavirus will so weaken the U.S. and the liberal order that China’s ascent will be accelerated. Or perhaps China will run into so many internal problems, and so much external resistance, that its drive will stall.

Yet we ought to recognize that the debate about what China wants is growing stale, because China’s leaders and behavior have increasingly answered that question. When a proud and powerful challenger starts to advertise its global ambitions, Americans should probably err on the side of taking those ambitious seriously.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story: Hal Brands at Hal.Brands@jhu.edu

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net

@ Bloomberg

For Chinese leader Xi Jinping it is a high-stakes power play. His move to impose tough national security laws on Hong Kong risks reigniting pro-democracy protests that plunged the city into chaos last year, increasing tensions in an already fraught relationship with the United States and undermining Hong Kong’s status as a global financial hub.

In the aftermath of the protests, Beijing appears determined to stamp out any renewed rebellion against the Communist Party’s authority over the former British colony. China’s largely rubber-stamp parliament, the National People’s Congress, is preparing to circumvent the city’s lawmaking body, the Legislative Council, in drafting the new laws. The fear among many in Hong Kong is that China intends to criminalize existing freedoms, including criticism of the central government and its policies. It is the latest and biggest step in a concerted effort by Beijing to assert control over Hong Kong and its 7.4 million people.

In recent weeks there had been widespread speculation here that Beijing was planning this move, described by some local commentators as the “nuclear option.” Thursday’s announcement by China nonetheless stunned pro-democracy lawmakers, business leaders and lawyers in the city. It was, they said, a historic turning point – the end of “one country, two systems,” the formula Beijing had promised would allow Hong Kong to retain its way of life and freedom for at least 50 years after the 1997 handover to Chinese rule.

“This represents a real demolition of the one country, two systems idea and also the idea of Hong Kong’s autonomy,” said barrister Wilson Leung, a member of the Progressive Lawyers Group. Leung said extremely harsh sentences had been imposed on dissidents, journalists and lawyers on the mainland under vaguely expressed but draconian laws. “These same vague concepts are now being introduced to Hong Kong,” he said.

Many details of the new laws and exactly how they will be absorbed into Hong Kong’s existing statutes remain unclear. But Beijing has openly expressed its intentions in recent months. It wants to end the cycle of mass protests that have thwarted successive post-colonial administrations each time they have moved to more closely align the city with China’s political and legal system.

The current Beijing-backed leader of Hong Kong, Carrie Lam, was forced to drop proposed laws last year that would have allowed extraditions for trial in mainland Chinese courts after demonstrations convulsed the city. Alarmingly for Beijing, many young protesters began making calls to “free Hong Kong” and became increasingly violent as police battled to restore order.

The new laws will be annexed into Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, known as the Basic Law, outlawing secession, subversion and terrorism – and providing for the stationing of mainland national security agencies in the city, according to a draft seen by Reuters that spells out what the legislation will cover. That intention is raising fears in Hong Kong that Chinese intelligence agents and police will not only be based in the city, but have formal enforcement power for the first time.

The draft also states that Hong Kong’s “judicial organs” along with its government and legislature “must effectively prevent, stop and punish acts endangering national security.”

Senior judges in the city told Reuters last month that the independence of Hong Kong’s judicial system is under assault from the Communist Party leadership, posing a grave threat to the rule of law.

The proposal for new legislation is expected to be passed on May 28 by the National People’s Congress, though it remains unclear how and when exactly Hong Kong will bring it into effect.

Legal scholars are unsure whether the Basic Law’s extensive human rights protections will apply to the new imposed legislation. The Basic Law currently prevents mainland security institutions from routinely taking enforcement action inside the city.

Shiu Sin-por, a former top aide to Lam’s predecessor as city leader, told Reuters that the deployment into Hong Kong of the Ministry of State Security – China’s leading intelligence agency – could happen “right away.”

“For Beijing to announce this, they most probably already have something in mind,” Shiu said. “This is not difficult to set up, so this can happen anytime.”

‘ENOUGH IS ENOUGH’

Chinese officials say the decision to pass the legislation via the National People’s Congress is because they know it won’t be passed by the Legislative Council in Hong Kong. “Hong Kong still has not completed legislation on national security since its return to China,” said a person with direct knowledge of Beijing’s thinking. “After the endless protests, it’s time for Beijing to say enough is enough.”

The mainland authorities did not immediately respond to questions from Reuters.

Lam said in a statement on Friday that she “deeply” believed the new law “will seek to practically and effectively prevent and curb acts and activities that seriously undermine national security, as well as sanction those who undermine national security by advocating ‘Hong Kong independence’ and resorting to violence.”

The immediate risk for Beijing is that the move will spark a fresh, more violent round of demonstrations. Protest groups and pro-democracy lawmakers are furious and have vowed to take to the streets to protest what they describe as “evil laws.”

“Beijing is attempting to silence Hong Kongers’ critical voices with force and fear,” pro-democracy activist Joshua Wong said on Twitter. “Deep down protesters know, we insist not because we are strong, but because we have no other choice.”

It is a decisive but potentially fraught move for the Chinese leadership at a time when Beijing faces the most intense international and domestic pressure it has experienced in decades.

The Covid-19 pandemic that began late last year in the Chinese city of Wuhan is battering the global economy. The death toll now exceeds 330,000 worldwide. China’s inability to initially contain the virus – and evidence that it suppressed information about the outbreak – has damaged its international standing. A report presented early last month by the Ministry of State Security to Xi and other Chinese leaders contained a stark warning, Reuters reported: Global anti-China sentiment was at its highest since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown.

Compounding Beijing’s discomfort, Taiwan’s government under President Tsai Ing-wen is basking in international acclaim for its success in containing the infection and avoiding serious economic harm. So far, Taiwan has had 441 confirmed cases of coronavirus and just seven deaths. China claims Taiwan as its own territory and has never renounced the use of force to assert that sovereignty.

As the pandemic spreads, Beijing has unleashed what Chinese commentators dub “wolf-warrior” diplomats – envoys who are lashing out against perceived slights or criticism with mockery and threats of trade retaliation.

China may be misreading the international mood. After Australia last month called for an independent inquiry into the origins and spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, China’s ambassador said Chinese consumers could boycott Australian beef, wine and tourism. Beijing ultimately agreed to back a probe when it became clear at this month’s meeting of the World Health Assembly, the decision-making body of the World Health Organization, that there was overwhelming global support for an inquiry.

‘READY TO FIGHT TONIGHT’

Military and economic tension with the U.S. is also on the rise. The Trump administration is sending loud signals that it will resist any Chinese move to expand its footprint in the South China Sea or seek territorial gains while the world is distracted with the public health crisis. Earlier this month, the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet took the unusual step of announcing that all its forward deployed attack submarines were at sea on patrol in the Western Pacific. The location of U.S. submarines is normally secret – unless the Pentagon wants to send a warning that it is prepared to counter a threat.

“The Pacific Fleet submarine force remains lethal, agile and ready to fight tonight,” U.S. Pacific Fleet submarine commander Rear Admiral Blake Converse said in a statement.

In the South China Sea and East China Sea, U.S. warships and long-range bombers have been mounting an ongoing series of patrols and exercises off the Chinese coast.

On Hong Kong, the United States is warning that Washington could retaliate economically if the city’s freedoms are threatened. At stake is Hong Kong’s special status in its ties with the United States, which provides for a broad range of trade, economic, political, social and law enforcement cooperation. Hong Kong, for example, is treated separately from the mainland by the United States in terms of customs and immigration.

On Thursday, a bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced a bill to impose sanctions on Chinese officials or entities who violate freedoms China pledged to preserve in Hong Kong. The bill also would place sanctions on any bank that does significant business with those officials and entities.

Chinese officials bristle at U.S. attempts to dictate to Beijing how it should handle Hong Kong, which is a Chinese city. In particular, some point to the State Department saying it would delay the release of a report on whether Hong Kong is autonomous enough to continue receiving special treatment from the world’s biggest economy.

“Beijing doesn’t bow to threats like this,” said the person with direct knowledge of Beijing’s thinking. “To Beijing, Hong Kong is China’s Hong Kong.”

Damage to Hong Kong’s role as a financial center could compound the challenge facing Beijing in rejuvenating the Chinese economy. Business activity had been slowing even before the pandemic; Covid-19 has hammered it. Official figures recorded a 6.8% contraction in economic output in the first quarter. One measure of the country’s woes: The authorities announced this week that because of the uncertainty created by the pandemic, they won’t be setting an annual growth target, a stark turnaround for a country whose statistics have shown unbroken expansion for decades in virtual lockstep with government forecasts.

Hong Kong is a vital cog in China’s economy. While China still has extensive capital controls and often intervenes in its financial markets and banking system, Hong Kong is one of the most open economies in the world and one of the biggest markets for equity and debt financing. China uses Hong Kong’s currency, equity and debt markets to attract foreign funds, while international companies use Hong Kong as a launchpad to expand into mainland China. The bulk of foreign direct investment in China continues to be channeled through the city. And many of China’s biggest firms have listed in Hong Kong, often as a springboard to global expansion.

The American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong said in a statement that the move by China “may jeopardize future prospects for international business,” including the ability to “recruit and retain top tier talent” in the city. “No one wins if the foundation for Hong Kong’s role as a prime international business and financial center is eroded,” said Robert Grieves, chairman of the business group.

@ Reuters

Seafood Expo Asia, the seafood marketplace for Asia, produced by Diversified Communications, connects more than 7,500 global suppliers and buyers each year providing industry professionals the opportunity to source all types of seafood products and services, as well as to learn and explore the latest trends in seafood.

“Moving to Singapore this year will provide our exhibitors and buyers the opportunity to connect and further explore business potential throughout Asia,” said Liz Plizga, Group Vice President, Diversified Communications.  “The decision is based on feedback from our customers on the potential of the Asian seafood market.  Our third-party research also reaffirmed the growing need for buyers in these markets to meet international seafood suppliers.”

Staging the event in Singapore will reinforce Seafood Expo Asia’s positioning in connecting international seafood suppliers and Asian buyers in the epicenter of the robust seafood markets. Singapore is an important business hub for global trade, its geographic location enables easy access to over 400 cities worldwide.

Hosting the event later in the year, and as the Asian economy re-opens, presents the opportunity for seafood suppliers and buyers to capture year-end business and prepare for the year ahead.

“We are pleased that Diversified Communications has chosen Singapore to host Seafood Expo Asia in 2020 and are committed to working closely with them towards a successful event. Singapore has a strong reputation as a preferred destination for business events and we are confident in the long-term prospects of the industry.  We look forward to welcoming the delegates to Singapore in November,” commented Andrew Phua, Executive Director of Exhibitions and Conferences, Singapore Tourism Board.

“We are proud to be playing host to Seafood Expo Asia at Singapore EXPO & MAX Atria for the first time. With the necessary hygiene and precautionary measures put in place, we are committed to providing the organizers, exhibitors and attendees a safe and comfortable environment where they can network and forge new partnerships at ease. Located within the global node of Asia, it is an honor for us in Singapore to be giving the seafood community a space and platform where they can grow their businesses. We look forward to welcoming all of them in November,” said Alvin Lim, Executive Director, Brand & Customer Experience, SingEx Holdings.

Seafood Expo Asia is pleased to announce that its 2020 edition will be co-located with Asia Fruit Logistica, the leading continental trade show for Asia’s fresh produce business.  Asia Fruit Logistica brings more than 12,000 trade professionals from all over the world to meet and do business in fresh fruits and vegetables with over 800 exhibitors from 40 countries. The co-location will facilitate the sourcing requirement of perishable food procurement professionals.

“Our co-location demonstrates the importance of face-to-face trade shows as the world emerges from this global pandemic and it also underlines the relevance of Singapore as a preferred location for event organizers around the world,” said Will Wollbold, Commercial Director of Global Produce Events (GPE), which organizes ASIA FRUIT LOGISTICA.

“Seafood Expo Asia and Asia Fruit Logistica share the same aspiration of providing business continuity to the retail and foodservice sector in the Asian market. Together the events provide a convenient one-stop sourcing location for international buyers in Asia looking for global suppliers of all types of seafood, as well as fresh fruit and vegetables,” stated Plizga. “We are thrilled to collaborate with Asia Fruit Logistica in delivering a safe and healthy forum for the perishable food sector.”

Seafood Expo Asia will feature an exhibit floor with international suppliers of fresh, chilled, frozen, canned and value-added seafood products as well as services, and a conference program covering the most relevant industry topics in Asia.

The 3rd edition of the Young Chef Challenge, which recognizes the next generation of culinary talents in Singapore, will take place in the exhibit hall during Seafood Expo Asia.  The competition encourages culinary mentorship and provides opportunity for aspiring culinary chefs to discover and further develop their skills.

For more information and event updates please visit www.seafoodexpo.com/asia.