The Indian government has categorically rejected an arbitration ruling which said the country must uphold a decades-old water-sharing treaty with Pakistan and limit construction on a hydroelectric project in the disputed Kashmir region.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague on Monday ruled in Pakistan’s favor over the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, saying the historic pact remains fully binding and that India had no valid grounds for ending or suspending it.

India, which moved to put the agreement “in abeyance” last year, said its decision remains in force.

“This so-called Court of Arbitration has no jurisdiction whatsoever to pronounce on India’s sovereign decisions,” India’s Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement on Monday.

“Its pronouncements, now or in the future, will have no effect on India’s actions in connection with the projects being undertaken by India,” it added.

The PCA also ordered India to limit construction on the Ratle hydroelectric plant in Kashmir, prohibiting work on the dam wall and power intake structure above certain levels. This ruling is set to remain in place until 90 days after a World Bank-appointed neutral expert delivers a final decision, which is expected before July 2027.

The arbitration ruling adds a new layer of stress to a long-simmering water dispute between two nuclear-armed neighbors.

The Indus Water Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, governs the use of the rivers in the Indus basin, which spans India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and China. Under the agreement, India has unrestricted access to the basin’s eastern rivers while Pakistan receives rights to the western rivers.

The treaty has endured three wars and prolonged periods of diplomatic tensions but has come under increasing strain in recent years.

India moved to put the treaty in abeyance in April last year following a militant attack in Kashmir, for which Delhi blamed Pakistan but Islamabad denied involvement.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said via social media that Islamabad welcomed the PCA’s court ruling.

“The Award vindicates Pakistan’s consistent position that a binding international treaty cannot be unilaterally suspended or set aside. India must fully comply with its obligations under the Treaty and with the binding decisions of its dispute settlement mechanism,” Dar said Monday.

As the downstream country, Pakistan depends heavily on the Indus Water Treaty, with tens of millions of people relying on the rivers’ waters for their livelihoods and survival.

The Indus basin supplies about 80% of the country’s irrigated agriculture, a sector that employs 65% of the labor force and represents roughly 25% of Pakistan’s gross domestic product, according to data compiled by Chatham House.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged Russia to end the Ukraine war and for a cessation of hostilities during his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit on Monday.

“India supports all peace efforts in this area [Ukraine war], and we will continue to do so,” Modi said, adding that “we must move from endless war to the end of war, to the cessation of hostilities.”

“Every day that the war continues, humanity takes a step backwards,” Modi said.

On Monday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said it is planning “massive strikes” on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, days after launching a devastating attack on an ammunition warehouse, amplifying fears of another winter assault.

Russian strike on the warehouse is among its deadliest attacks in Ukraine so far, with a death toll of 38. Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during winter pose Kyiv’s toughest challenge of the war yet, as per officials and national security experts.

Meanwhile, later this month, the U.S. House is expected to pass a bill honoring Lindsey Graham that would impose up to 100% tariffs on countries that are among the top five purchasers of Russian crude oil or gas, including China and India. 

Russia is India’s largest crude supplier, accounting for more than 50% of the country’s oil imports in June and July and nearly 43% till August 24. Between April and July, Russian exports to India rose to over $34 billion, up nearly 60% from last year, as per India’s latest trade data. 

During the meeting with Modi, Putin commended the growth in bilateral trade between the two countries but added that “last year saw a slight decline.”

U.S. President Donald Trump imposed punitive tariffs of 25% on India in August 2025 for its energy trade with Russia, taking the total levy on Indian exports to the U.S. to 50%.

While the tariffs on India have been reduced to 18% earlier this year, the U.S. has been keen to increase the supply of Venezuelan crude to India to replace the Russian barrels.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly told Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov that no sanctions relief or new agreements with Moscow were possible, as long as the war in Ukraine continues.

The two officials met on the sidelines of a Group of 20 finance leaders’ gathering in Asheville, North Carolina.

Bessent’s remarks came as Siluanov’s first in-person appearance at the summit since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 drew objections from other European leaders. European governments have planned to expand sanctions to further squeeze Moscow’s economy and finances.

The rare meeting underscored Washington’s willingness to reopen high-level diplomatic channels with Moscow, even as European allies have intended to keep the nation isolated while the war continues.

Bessent made it clear to Siluanov that “nothing is possible until the war is over,” when the Russian minister brought up other areas of mutual interest, Reuters reported.

The meeting centered on President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine and economic growth, according to Axios, while Russia’s finance ministry described the discussions as covering financial cooperation between the two nations within the G20 framework.

Russia’s surprise return to the table sparked dismay among European officials, who opposed appearing with Siluanov inthe traditional G20 photo, which was ultimately taken without the Russian minister.

India’s economy grew by 7.8% in the quarter to the end of June, mainly driven by strong performance of the financial, real estate, information technology and professional services sectors.

The reading is comfortably above a Reuters poll of expectations for 7.1% growth and follows 7.8% growth in the previous quarter.

While agriculture and allied sectors reported tepid growth, the performance of manufacturing and services sectors sharply improved in the June quarter, India’s Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation said in a release on Monday.

The Iran war has not impacted India’s growth as feared, Aastha Gudwani, India chief economist at Barclays, told CNBC’s Inside India earlier.

Of the 20 high-frequency indicators tracked by Barclays, only seven put the April-to-June quarter average growth rate slower than the Jan-March quarter, she explained, adding that consumer demand has stayed “robust.” Manufacturing and service sectors, automobile sales and loan growth are also holding up really well, she added.

Earlier in the month, India’s central bank warned that even as the country’s economy had remained “resilient” amid geopolitical uncertainty, growth was expected to slow over this financial year. 

The Reserve Bank of India had estimated that India’s economy would grow by 7.0% in the three months ending June and 6.7% during the financial year ending March 2027.

The central bank expects “the turbulent global economic environment” to have an impact on domestic economic activity as energy prices and supply chain pressures remain “elevated and uncertain.”

The El Niño conditions could lead to a deficient and uneven south-west monsoon and pose risks to India’s farm sector and rural demand, the central bank said earlier this month.

The impact of high energy prices is already being felt in India, with the country’s inflation climbing steadily for nine straight months to 4.45% in July. Yet the RBI, unlike some of its Asian peers, did not hike interest rates in its August policy.

Shares of HDFC Bank, India’s largest private sector lender, rose 2.5% Monday before paring gains, after Chief Executive Sashidhar Jagdishan made a surprise announcement about exiting the bank after the end of his term in October.

Analysts believe that the successor’s profile could offer the bank re-rating potential, especially as the stock has been battered since the start of the year. As per LSEG data, shares of HDFC have tanked 27% since the start of the year compared with an 8% drop of the benchmark Nifty 50 index.

The next chief executive will need to accelerate growth, improve deposit mobilization and returns, and rebuild confidence around governance and senior-management stability, global brokerage Nomura said in a report on Sunday.

“A credible successor could become a meaningful rerating catalyst,” it said but added that the stock would “remain under pressure in the near term” until there is clarity on the next chief executive and the direction in which he will steer the bank.

This is the second time this year that the bank has been embroiled in a leadership crisis. In March, the bank’s part-time chair Atanu Chakraborty resigned after flagging governance and ethical concerns within the institution.

“Despite persuasion, Mr. Jagdishan reiterated his decision to not seek reappointment,” HDFC said in a release on Saturday, adding it will “fast-track the process for selection and appointment of his successor.”

Kaizad Bharucha, the deputy managing director of the bank, is the most likely internal choice to replace Jagdishan, Citi and Jefferies said in their latest reports.

Some of the other candidates named in the Jefferies report on Monday include Anup Bagchi, CEO ICICI Pru Life; Paresh Sukthankar, former deputy MD at HDFC Bank; Vibha Padalkar, chief executive of HDFC Life; and Amitabh Chaudhry, CEO, Axis Bank.

Jefferies, which continues to have a buy rating on HDFC Bank, said that the uncertainty over leadership “can lift cost of equity, leading to lower valuation” but said that after the share drop earlier this year the “risk-reward is balanced,” at a price-to-book ratio of 1.5 times.

Citi in its report on Sunday said that the new CEO needs to demonstrate strategic competence to deliver a credible path to scale up net interest margins and return on assets and a decisive growth trajectory with market share gain.

During Jagdishan’s tenure, HDFC Bank completed a $40 billion takeover of the country’s largest mortgage lender, the synergies from which are yet to be fully realized, as per analysts.

China’s manufacturing activity in August shrank for a second straight month, though by less than market estimates, keeping the pressure on Beijing to support the economy as growth loses momentum.

The official purchasing managers’ index reading came in at 49.8, compared with 49.2 in July, National Bureau of Statistics data showed Monday, better than Reuters-polled economists’ forecast of 49.6.

China’s economy has come under mounting strain, with growth slowing to 4.3% in the second quarter, the weakest pace since late 2022, as soft domestic demand and a prolonged property slump continue to weigh on activity.

The economic malaise deepened further in the second half of this year, as consumer spending stalled, urban investment contracted at a faster pace, and unemployment ticked higher.

Retail sales and industrial output both slowed in July, while growth in industrial profits cooled to its weakest pace this year.

Exports have been one of the few pillars propping up growth this year, cushioning some of the drag from external shocks as a global boom in AI infrastructure spending lifts demand for Chinese-made tech goods. Outbound shipments recorded double-digit growth for most of this year.

Economists expect better growth for the rest of the year, as adverse weather fades and local governments accelerate fiscal spending.

Beijing is likely to further accelerate fiscal spending as policymakers have grown increasingly worried over the collapse in urban investment, said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “This should fast-track project approval and fund disbursement.”

But the effect of such policy expansion will only become more prominent next month, and in the fourth quarter, Xu said, pointing to early signs of recovery in domestic demand.

Supply and demand both improved in August, according to the NBS release, with the sub-indexes tracking production and new orders expanding to 50.4 and 50.6, respectively.

New export orders rebounded to 50.1 in August from 49.6 in the previous month, signaling a recovery in overseas demand even as the global economy weathered the prolonged Middle East turmoil.

The sub-indexes on raw materials inventory and employment, however, were in contractionary territory below the 50-mark threshold.

High-tech equipment manufacturing outpaced the broader factory sector. The production and new orders readings for the electronic machinery and equipment, computer communication devices sectors topped 53, while consumer goods production lagged at 49.

Overall, firms appeared to be anticipating “a boost to economic activity as local governments step up spending over the rest of the year,” said Nguyen Hoang Nam, China economist at Capital Economics.

The improvement in the factory-gate price sub-indexes also pointed to renewed inflationary pressures, in part due to higher global crude and metal prices.

“The rise of commodity prices may have benefited some firms in the upstream manufacturing sector,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president at Pinpoint Asset Management, although the price gains were driven by supply constraints, as demand remained weak.

The non-manufacturing gauge, which tracks construction and services activity, stayed unchanged at 49% in August, though the sub-index for the construction industry fell 0.1 percentage point to 46.9%.

Within the services category, wholesale, retail, and capital markets services activity contracted.

The private RatingDog manufacturing PMI survey is estimated to show factory activity climbing to 51, according to a Reuters poll, with results due Tuesday. The gauge tends to capture smaller and more export-oriented firms and has historically painted a rosier picture than the official PMI reading.

Jio Platforms, India’s biggest telecom operator and digital service provider, has secured regulatory approval to launch its public issue, paving the way for what could be the country’s largest initial public offering.

Jio Platforms is estimated to raise around 377 billion rupees ($3.9 billion) through the IPO, as per market intelligence firm Prime Database, exceeding the $3.3 billion issue of Korean carmaker Hyundai Motors in 2024.

Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s flagship company, Reliance Industries, owns more than 66% stake in Jio Platforms, followed by Meta Platforms‘ affiliate Jaadhu Holdings that owns nearly 10% and Google International, which owns 7.7%, as per LSEG data.

Neither Meta nor Google will sell their stake in the company, according to the IPO papers.

The IPO will see the company issue up to 270 million shares, and the funds raised will be used to pare the debt of its subsidiary, Reliance Jio Infocomm, which is India’s largest wireless operator.

India is one of the most active IPO markets in the world and has a pipeline of $50 billion worth of share offerings scheduled this year, including the much-awaited National Stock Exchange offering.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India has sought clarification regarding the draft prospectus of the National Stock Exchange, which could delay the IPO, expected to raise around 300 billion rupees ($3.1 billion), according to firm Prime Database.

India’s IPO market is entering a stronger second half of 2026, supported by improving market conditions, lower volatility and a more stable macroeconomic backdrop, Abhinav Bharti, head of India equity capital markets at J.P. Morgan, told “Inside India” earlier this month.

A year ago, wealthy Chinese families were souring on Singapore. Its rules felt onerous, its nightlife subdued. Other cities seemed easier or more exciting. 

Now they want to come back. 

Family-office advisers and wealth managers say they are seeing renewed interest in Singapore from affluent Chinese clients who had shifted their lives to other financial centers, as tightening scrutiny from Beijing and geopolitical turmoil make its stability look attractive again. 

The reversal underscores how quickly the calculations of Asia’s wealthy can change. 

Singapore emerged as a favored destination for wealthy mainland Chinese seeking to diversify their assets and gain distance from Beijing, particularly after Hong Kong’s 2019 protests and subsequent national security crackdown.

However, its appeal faded after a $3 billion money-laundering scandal in 2023 triggered tighter scrutiny of wealthy clients and family offices. Stricter compliance checks, lengthy bank onboarding and residency requirements pushed some Chinese families toward jurisdictions they viewed as easier or more appealing – such as Hong Kong, Dubai and Tokyo.

But what once seemed restrictive is increasingly being viewed by some as a source of security.

“The very reason why they came to Singapore in the first place back then was because China’s policies impact Hong Kong much closer to them than in Singapore,” said Bayfront Law director Ryan Lin.

Lin, who advises wealthy Chinese clients on setting up family offices and securing residency in Singapore, said last year that he was increasingly helping clients move away from the city-state as tighter compliance and disclosure requirements eroded its appeal. 

The shift comes as Beijing steps up scrutiny of wealth held outside mainland China. New rules affecting offshore trusts have rattled wealthy families because of requirements to disclose structures and potential tax liabilities, while tighter oversight has also extended to areas including insurance and offshore brokerage accounts. These rules can apply regardless of where a trust is located or where an individual physically lives.

“When it comes to the safety of their wealth, they probably now are considering Singapore very, very seriously for the long term,” he said, adding that they are more determined this time, with several asking about pathways to permanent residency and citizenship as they consider making Singapore a longer-term base.

Moving to Singapore does not automatically sever an individual’s obligations to China, said Carman Chan, founder of Hong Kong and Singapore-based family office Click Ventures, particularly without a change in citizenship or tax status.

Advisers say the renewed interest in Singapore is generally about creating physical, financial and political distance from the mainland while maintaining additional options.

Lin said recent restrictions affecting mainland investors’ access to offshore brokerages in Hong Kong had particularly unsettled some clients. “They find perhaps Hong Kong is really too close to China,” he said.

Manish Tibrewal, co-founder of family office Farro Capital, said his firm has seen a sharp pickup in inquiries from Chinese families considering to relocate to Singapore. 

A spokesperson for Hong Kong’s Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau said that under the “one country, two systems” framework, “Hong Kong upholds the common law system, the free flow of capital, the free convertibility of its currency, a simple and low tax regime, and a regulatory framework aligned with international standards.”

Singapore is also benefiting from a different source of anxiety: the Middle East. 

Several advisers, including Tibrewal and Lin, said Chinese families who shifted toward Dubai in recent years have reconsidered their plans amid conflict in the region. 

Lin said some of his clients initially treated the conflict as a temporary shock. But as tensions persisted, families began taking more concrete steps to leave.

“My clients are afraid that Dubai may potentially be easy collateral damage.” Lin said. “Their sense of security will not be there. They will be frantic. At least mentally, they won’t feel very safe. Their mindset of managing money in Dubai has changed.”

Some have already returned while others are unwinding investments and financial arrangements before doing so, he said.

Tokyo had become attractive to wealthy Chinese in recent years as a weak yen made everything from property to luxury goods cheaper. Its proximity to China and safety had also made it an obvious alternative to Singapore.

Yet language barriers, difficulties integrating into Japanese society and differences in business and social culture caused issues, advisers said.

Iris Xu, CEO of Jenga Business Consulting Group, a consultancy that works with wealthy families, cited one client who relocated to Japan but returned to Singapore after just eight months.

“After going to Japan, going to Dubai, going to Hong Kong, there remains the Singapore option,” Xu said.

The renewed interest also arrives as Singapore itself fine-tunes the rules governing its family-office industry. 

The Monetary Authority of Singapore in July eased some conditions for single-family offices seeking tax incentives, with the changes taking effect Aug. 1. The revisions give offices greater flexibility on hiring and investment requirements even as authorities continue to strengthen checks on the sources of wealth entering the country. 

“Wealth owners from a diverse range of countries choose Singapore for many reasons, including our high standards of regulation, strong rule of law, and a comprehensive ecosystem of wealth managers and professional service providers,” an MAS spokesperson told CNBC.

Enquiries for luxury Singapore properties from Chinese buyers also increased 35% in the first half from a year earlier, according to Juwai IQI. 

Advisers for the wealthy say Singapore’s advantage is increasingly the predictability that comes with its rules.

“Their priorities have changed,” Xu said. “Before, maybe they were looking for an opportunity. Now they are looking at safety.”

Russian forces have intensified attacks within Ukraine’s so-called “fortress belt” of industrial cities in the eastern Donetsk region, seeking to ramp up pressure on critical Ukrainian strongholds after more than four and a half years of full-scale war.

Russian forces have long targeted the strategic cities of Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk as part of a push to completely capture the Donetsk Oblast, one of the Kremlin’s key objectives in the conflict.

Speaking at an undisclosed location on Thursday, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov said Russian forces had advanced to a position just four kilometers (2.5 miles) from the eastern outskirts of Sloviansk.

Gerasimov also claimed Russian troops had overcome the first defensive line of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk fortified region in certain areas and that operations were currently advancing along a 160-kilometer front.

The report comes shortly after data from Ukrainian open-source mapping group Deep State found that the most active battlefield actions were taking place around Kostyantynivka, which is seen as the gateway to the rest of the Donbas region.

Analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said earlier this week that Russian forces had intensified efforts to advance toward Sloviansk from the east and southeast following unsuccessful attempts from the northeast.

In its latest assessment of the Ukraine war, ISW challenged Gerasimov’s recent claims of battlefield advances, however, saying they appeared to be designed to construct a narrative of “pervasive” Russian military success and “remain divorced from reality.”

Away from the front line, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha on Friday welcomed a fresh push from four European Union member states seeking to leverage frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s war effort.

“It is only fair and logical to use Russian assets, rather than only European taxpayers money’, to cover additional costs of defending Ukraine and the rest of Europe from the Russian threat,” Sybiha said in a social media post.

“This discussion needs to be rational, not emotional,” he added.

Ministers representing Spain, Sweden, Poland and the Netherlands on Thursday sent a letter to the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, calling on Brussels to restart work on plans to use more than 200 billion euros ($232.9 billion) in Russian central bank assets immobilized under EU sanctions.

Talks on the initiative, which Russia considers “blatantly illegal,” collapsed last year when Belgium blocked the move over liability concerns.