Home World Oil prices set for steep monthly drop as Trump, Iran issue mixed messages on talks in Qatar

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People walk along the Corniche area in Doha, Qatar, on June 29, 2026. United States and Iranian negotiators are scheduled to hold high-level talks in Doha, according to media reports.
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Oil prices were slightly higher on Tuesday as energy market participants closely monitored the potential for fresh talks between the U.S. and Iran in Qatar.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with August delivery were last seen up 0.03% at $73.17 per barrel. The contract is on track to end June roughly $19 lower, or 20% lower than the closing session on May 29. Brent crude futures with September delivery, meanwhile, rose 0.09% at $73.98.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with August delivery traded down 0.2% at $70.61, putting the contract on course for a $16 drop, or 19% fall, from last month’s closing.

The moves come as oil traders monitor prospects for U.S.-Iran talks in Doha.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said talks between the two countries would take place in Qatar’s capital on Tuesday, claiming via social media that Tehran had “requested a meeting” following an exchange of strikes over the weekend.

A spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry on Monday reportedly denied that talks were scheduled over the coming days. They added that an Iranian technical delegation’s visit to Qatar this week was not related to U.S. officials visiting the country.

U.S. special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Doha Tuesday. A Qatari government spokesperson said they would meet mediators, not directly with the Iranians.

The mixed messaging appears to underscore the fragility of an interim peace deal struck by the U.S. and Iran earlier this month.

The two countries struck a 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 17 to pause fighting that had severely disrupted global oil flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Located in the gulf between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is recognized as one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. The narrow waterway typically handles around 20% of the world’s oil traffic.

‘Situation can change very quickly’

Energy analysts say they have been surprised by the pace of the sell-off in the oil market, noting that it has been far more aggressive than most had expected.

“The price action in recent weeks reflects a market that is treating this temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran as a permanent deal. This is clearly not the case, and as we have seen over the last four months, the situation can change very quickly,” strategists at ING said in a research note published Monday.

“It took long enough to agree on a temporary ceasefire. Reaching a permanent deal which tackles the nuclear issue within 60 days would be very optimistic. Of course, there is always the potential for the ceasefire to be extended, which would effectively be kicking the can down the road,” they added.

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Source: CNBC

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